Game 26: GMU (17-8 / 6-6) vs #16 Dayton (21-4 / 11-2) on Wednesday, February 21, at 7:00 PM.

Patriotsince81

Hall of Famer
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
GOLD SPONSOR
The game is on MASN.

Dayton was picked 1st in A10 Preseason Polls. DaRon Holmes and Malachi Smith were chosen to the All-Conference 1st and 2nd teams respectively. Holmes was also chosen to the All-Defensive team.

KenPom: Gives us a 38% chance of winning.
GMU - 96
Dayton - 24
NET:
Mason - 89
Dayton - 19

We are 5-10 (.333) against Dayton all-time.

Dayton is currently 21-4 and 10-2 in A10 play. They are 13-0 at home, 5-3 on the road, and 3-1 at neutral sites.

Wins: SIUE (63-47), LSU (70-67), St. John’s (88-81), Youngstown St. (77-69), SMU (65-63), Grambling St. (76-46), Troy (82-70), Cincinnati (82-68), Oakland (91-67), Longwood (78-69), Davidson (72-59), UMass (64-60), Duquesne (72-62), St. Louis (70-65), Rhode Island (96-62), La Salle (66-54), GW (83-61), St. Bonaventure (76-71), St. Joe’s (94-79), Duquesne (75-59), Fordham 78-70)
Losses: Northwestern (71-66), Houston (69-55), Richmond (69-64), vcu (49-47),

Schedule: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule
Roster: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
Stats: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats

Probable Starters:
6’10” DaRon Holmes (20.0 ppg & 8.0 reb) - Junior
6’7” Nate Santos (12.1 ppg & 6.6 reb) - Junior
6’2” Kobe Elvis (9.2 ppg) - Junior
5’10” Javon Bennett (9.0 ppg) - Sophomore
6’3” Enoch Cheeks (7.0 ppg & 4.9 reb) - Junior

Dayton suffered a huge loss when Malachi Smith went out with a torn lateral meniscus in the first game of the season. He is out for the year.

Reserves averaging double digit minutes:
6’6” Koby Brea (10.4 ppg) - Junior

Team Stats:
Dayton averages 73.6 points per game while giving up 63.1.

The Flyers shoot 47.1% from the floor and 36.5% from 3.
Opponents are shooting 40.1% from the field and 38.4% from 3.

They shoot 70.2% from the free throw line.

The Flyers are currently out rebounding their opponents by 1.5 boards per game and average 8.9 turnovers per game.

Thoughts: Dayton is currently 1st in the A10 in scoring defense, 1st in field goal percentage, 1st in 3 point field goal percentage, and 2nd in 3’s made. They have 3 Quad 1 wins and are undefeated against Quad 2, 3, and 4 teams. DaRon Holmes is currently 1st in the A10 in scoring and 3rd in rebounding and will be a great test for our bigs. Foul trouble for Kelly/Henry and Holmes will be key because they only go 6 deep. Are they invincible? No, but they are good. Pulling this off would be a great win, possibly a program defining win under TS. Get to the game, get loud, and let’s make this sh$t happen!!!!!!

Discuss.
 

Attachments

  • patriotsvsflyers1finalc.jpg
    patriotsvsflyers1finalc.jpg
    164.3 KB · Views: 133,581
Last edited:
Ok - I've been a homer with my picks all year and have done pretty well. Should we lose this game, yes. Will we?, I dunno. We are 12-2 at home this year but, both are losses are to team ahead of us in the standings.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Tony has figured something out with this team and that is that he has a deep bench and needs to use it. Our starting five are not Top A10, but our Top 10 are better than everyone else in the league. Use the whole team and wear out the competition.

Us 78
Team from town with nothing to claim except the Wright Brothers who had to go to NC to become famous - 72
 

gmuballer14

Sixth Man
So do we hope to win to help with momentum, or is it better for the conference for Dayton to win so they don't get another "bad" loss on their resume?
 

GMUgemini

Hall of Famer
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
So do we hope to win to help with momentum, or is it better for the conference for Dayton to win so they don't get another "bad" loss on their resume?

Why would you ever hope to lose a game to help the conference?

Anyway. We are a q2 game and our NET will improve if we win (not sure if 75 is attainable anymore but it might be)…but, uh, yes, we should be rooting for ourselves to win.
 

jruby

Specialist
So do we hope to win to help with momentum, or is it better for the conference for Dayton to win so they don't get another "bad" loss on their resume?
I think there’s an outside chance to get to 75 in the net which would make it a quad 1 game. It may be hard and require winning 5 of 6 down the stretch or maybe even 6 of 6 but it’s possible.
 

GMUgemini

Hall of Famer
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
Was just a discussion topic I was thinking about this morning. Never said hope to lose.

To play: for the good of the conference the teams who need to finish the season strong are (in addition to Dayton and Richmond)

Mason, St. Bonaventure, and St. Joes (probably vcu too but screw them). These are the teams with the highest NET ranking and would be good Q2 games in the conference tournament and would help the resume of any team winning the conference or looking for an at-large bid.

It’s unfortunate vcu and Loyola figured stuff out and Mason, Bona, and St Joes have stumbled because we might have been in a position to get 3 teams in if those were your top 4 with Dayton.
 

Pablo

Hall of Famer
Dayton's and Mason's NET rankings are currently 19 and 86, respectively - https://bballnet.com

A victory over Dayton would be the third against a team with a NET ranking currently higher than Mason's (and all would be home games):

St. Bonaventure - 73
Cornell - 84
Davidson - 117
Tulane - 121
Toledo - 130
South Dakota State - 167
Rhode Island - 180
East Carolina - 186
Monmouth - 194
GW - 198
Saint Louis - 224
Austin Peay - 228
La Salle - 238
NJIT - 323
North Carolina A&T - 339
Loyola (MD) - 348
 

mkaufman1

Administrator
Staff member
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
GIVING DAY 2023
When GMU wins this game, I hope it isn't considered a bad loss by the experts.
We would be their worst loss, although since Mason is not sub 100 NET, it probably wouldn't be that bad of a loss.

Right now their worst loss is vcu at 72, Richmond follows at 70.
 

jruby

Specialist
We would be their worst loss, although since Mason is not sub 100 NET, it probably wouldn't be that bad of a loss.

Right now their worst loss is vcu at 72, Richmond follows at 70.
Those are both quad 1 loses then if they were on road. Not sure how bad a quad 2 loss would actually hurt, feels like a seed drop but not out of Tournament type loss.
 

mkaufman1

Administrator
Staff member
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
GIVING DAY 2023
Those are both quad 1 loses then if they were on road. Not sure how bad a quad 2 loss would actually hurt, feels like a seed drop but not out of Tournament type loss.
Agree with you. Dont' think a Quad 2 loss would do much though especially considering its still a top 100 team. But yeah, maybe they go from the last 5 seed to the first 6 seed.

We'll see. The one thing I'd like to see is if Mason wins, how much of a bump does Mason get. I'd love to get back into the top 75.
 

tblack33

Hall of Famer
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
GIVING DAY 2023
Dayton's and Mason's NET rankings are currently 19 and 86, respectively - https://bballnet.com

A victory over Dayton would be the third against a team with a NET ranking currently higher than Mason's (and all would be home games):

St. Bonaventure - 73
Cornell - 84
Davidson - 117
Tulane - 121
Toledo - 130
South Dakota State - 167
Rhode Island - 180
East Carolina - 186
Monmouth - 194
GW - 198
Saint Louis - 224
Austin Peay - 228
La Salle - 238
NJIT - 323
North Carolina A&T - 339
Loyola (MD) - 348
That OOC is pretty shitty. Hope we can schedule better next year.
 

GMUgemini

Hall of Famer
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
If Billups can contain Brea like he did Bishop last night and Kelly stays out of foul trouble I like our odds. vcu beat em with their bench and if they stay focused for a full forty minutes this game is totally winnable.

Mason: 61
Dayton: 59

I hope Skinn is watching film on how vcu kept Holmes from scoring in the paint and how Richmond convinced him to take 9 3s.

I think vcu got lucky Holmes missed so my FTs otherwise they lose that game. But having Holmes shoot mostly perimeter shots instead of getting the ball deep in the paint seems like a winning strategy to me.
 

PDGL Hoops

Starter
Don't live & die by the 3, play Defense like we did in the first half against GW, and keep turnovers to a minimum and I think we have a shot. Hoist a bunch of 3's, causing long rebounds for an athletic Dayton team, will doom us.
 
Top