Game 17: GMU (10-6 / 2-1) at St. Louis (10-6 / 2-1) on Wednesday, January 11, at 8:00 PM.

[Patriotsince81]

GMU is 4-9 against St. Louis all-time with every one of the meetings taking place since we joined the A10.

KenPom: Gives us a 39% chance of winning.
GMU - 111
St. Louis - 76

NET:
Mason - 110
St. Louis - 108

St. Louis is currently 10-6 and 2-1 on the season. They are 8-2 at home, 1-3 on the road, and 1-1 at neutral sites.

Wins: Murray St. (91-68), Evansville (83-65), Memphis (90-84), Providence (76-73), Paul Quinn (96-53), Tennesse St. (80-63), Southern Illinois (85-72), Drake (83-75), St. Joe’s (83-79), St.Bonaventure (78-55)

Losses: Maryland (95-67), Auburn (65-60), Iona (84-62), Boise St. (57-52), SIUE (69-67), UMass (90-81),

Schedule: https://slubillikens.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule
Roster: https://slubillikens.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
Stats: https://slubillikens.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022/pdf

St. Louis is led by 6’5” Gibson Jimerson (12.9 ppg), 6’0” Yuri Collins (12.2 ppg & 10.8 assists), 6'5" Javon Pickett (11.2 ppg & 6.0 reb), and 6'6" Javonte Perkins (9.8 ppg). 6'9" Francis Okoro (6.8 ppg) rounds out their starting 5. 6'9" Jake Forrester ( 7.1 ppg), 6'3" Fred Thatch Jr. (6.2 ppg), 6'3" Sincere Parker (5.1 ppg), and 6'4" Terrence Hargrove Jr. (4.5 ppg) average double figure minutes off the bench.

St. Louis averages 77.1 points per game while giving up 71.6. The Billikens shoot 45.2% from the floor and 32.8% from 3. Opponents are shooting 40.2% from the field and 33.2% from 3. They shoot 74.9% from the free throw line. The Billikens out rebound opponents by 6.5 boards per game. They average 12.0 turnovers per game.

The game is on ESPN+.

My prediction: They have one of the premier point guards in the country in Yuri Collins. He destroyed us last year when he scored 35 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, dished out 13 assists, and drove the length of the floor for the winning layup in a 92-90 double OT win against us at EBA. We have yet to win a meaningful game on the road. I hope I am wrong but this will be a double digit loss. St. Louis 80 - GMU 70.

Discuss.

 

[mkaufman1]

This will be a tough one. I’d love to have mason take this but I’m skeptical.

SLUt 75
Mason 71

 

[GMUYoda]

SLU defeats the Bonnies handily, 78-55

9 players played for SLU, and it was pretty evenly spread out point wise - lowest was 5 pts, highest was 13 pts

 

[psyclone]

Banks of the Bonnies, who had 27 against us, scored a grand total of 1 pt against SLU today in 33 minutes. Only had 2 fouls so it wasn't an issue of foul trouble. 0-5 from the field, 0-2 from 3. Not sure who defended him for the Salukis but according to Kenpom SLU is pretty ordinary on the defensive end.

 

[sleeperpick]

Banks of the Bonnies, who had 27 against us, scored a grand total of 1 pt against SLU today in 33 minutes. Only had 2 fouls so it wasn't an issue of foul trouble. 0-5 from the field, 0-2 from 3. Not sure who defended him for the Salukis but according to Kenpom SLU is pretty ordinary on the defensive end.

Salukis is the wrong mascot. Billikens of SLU. Also he was guarded by A10s best pg Yuri Collins

 

[BBride]

Shaking my head at how SLU lost by nearly 30 to what is now a bad Maryland team.
Mason needs to figure out how to win on the road. Not sure this is the game it happens.

 

[tblack33]

SLU just had a get right game at home against a Bonnie’s team we should have beat. A win here would go a long way to cementing a top 4 finish, but with our road woes I don’t see it in the cards. I hope we keep it competitive, but this one might be rough.

SLU 75
Mason 63

 

[GSII]

Josh tends to be hampered vs big physical centers so if slu bodies him down low he will probably fade. But if Ojiako plays too, and Josh plays the 4 he might be effective vs slu's 4. Not expecting to win, but a win is possible.

 

[psyclone]

Salukis is the wrong mascot. Billikens of SLU. Also he was guarded by A10s best pg Yuri Collins

You mean we're not playing Southern Illinois?! Was so looking forward to seeing XJ again!

 

[TweederGMU]

Can't come out flat in the first half like we always do. Need to be aggressive and drive the lane and D up on Collins.

Don't think we can win this one.... still too inconsistent.

Goodguys 68
Stay Puft Marshmallow Mans Cousins 74

 

[gmujim92]

Can't come out flat in the first half like we always do. Need to be aggressive and drive the lane and D up on Collins.

Don't think we can win this one.... still too inconsistent.

Goodguys 68
Stay Puft Marshmallow Mans Cousins 74

Your post raised an interesting question for me: Do we abandon our typical high ball-screen defense and hedge hard to force Collins to give the ball up, with the knowledge that he will far more often than not find somebody for an open shot, or do we keep playing drop coverage and force him to beat us shooting mid-range jumpers?

Knowing Yuri is not a great 3-point shooter I’d be inclined to pack the paint and force him to make 3s, but he went berserk against us in Fairfax last year so it might make sense to force the other guys to hit shots.

 

[PDGL Hoops]

Tough road game for the Patriots. This would be a statement win for our team but I am not 100% confident in our defense.

 

[mkaufman1]

Your post raised an interesting question for me: Do we abandon our typical high ball-screen defense and hedge hard to force Collins to give the ball up, with the knowledge that he will far more often than not find somebody for an open shot, or do we keep playing drop coverage and force him to beat us shooting mid-range jumpers?

Knowing Yuri is not a great 3-point shooter I’d be inclined to pack the paint and force him to make 3s, but he went berserk against us in Fairfax last year so it might make sense to force the other guys to hit shots.

Have a feeling we do a little bit of both. We probably want to limit his penetration as much as possible but also make someone else beat us too.

I'd like to see us hedge hard and push Collins out far, but that also means that our big (in most cases) has to recover quickly. Are our guys quick enough to do that?

It'll be interesting who has the task of picking up Collins. My guess is that Polite will have him, but I'm sure we'll throw some other guys at him too. I have to think that we would have thrown Ticket on him a bunch to bother him with length and quickness, but I am not sure who can step up. It might be a big challenge for Ronny to keep up with him (and all our guards) so we'll need to most likely have a lot of help defense in some way.

 

[sleeperpick]

Your post raised an interesting question for me: Do we abandon our typical high ball-screen defense and hedge hard to force Collins to give the ball up, with the knowledge that he will far more often than not find somebody for an open shot, or do we keep playing drop coverage and force him to beat us shooting mid-range jumpers?

Knowing Yuri is not a great 3-point shooter I’d be inclined to pack the paint and force him to make 3s, but he went berserk against us in Fairfax last year so it might make sense to force the other guys to hit shots.

If I was CKE I put a ton of pressure on him with Bailey as SLU has not been able to shoot this year. They play Jimerson and Sincere Parker off the bench as their shooters but both have struggled this season and Jimerson has been especially a net negative in clutch time. If we control Okoro/Forrester on the glass I think we have a chance and think that will be they key. Ticket had 12 pts and 17 rebounds last year as Oduro was a beast offensively and boxed out defensively (something we haven't seen much from him this year) Whoever that 5th starter is needs to crash the glass and help Josh out.

SLU has Javon Pickett back who was a 3 year starter at Mizzou (easily my most hated dude on this team as he is a total pest and talks so much crap). He did not play vs UMASS. Similarly Thatch Jr who is a 5th year senior is out for year after tearing ACL vs UMASS. Perkins, POY candidate has been horrible this year and is the reason SLU isn't touching an at large. I still have SLU firmly at the 2nd spot in the A10 and I bet future odds at the beginning of regular season on them winning A-10.

SLU wins by 8 just due to them being more talented even though they are streaky

 

[Verdad]

I think game starts as a rock fight and we actually come out with energy, but then mental lapses/turnovers will lead to a double digit SLU lead. We'll be trying to play catch up in 2nd half, get a little hot from 3 to close gap to maybe a one possession game, but ultimately can't tie it up and fouling/to's at the end lead to a 73-60 win for SLU.

I assume GMUBrian will be providing the popcorn report, I will be in town to provide a local establishment/beverage report.

 

[gmubrian]

I assume GMUBrian will be providing the popcorn report, I will be in town to provide a local establishment/beverage report.

Guilty as charged. Glad to see my popcorn report is gaining fans ;-)

I am ignoring my brain on this one and going with my heart. Malik and Justyn continue to progress and they both go off for career games. Josh, Ronnie and VJ continue to have their solid, if not quiet double digit scoring games. A combo of Ronnie with help from Malik helps to contain Collins just enough. This all adds up to us winning by 3.

 

[TweederGMU]

Verdad and gmubrian in the same town again. Don't know if the Lou has enough popcorn, beer and Dr. Peppers to tame you all.

 

[NewPatriot]

Josh tends to be hampered vs big physical centers so if slu bodies him down low he will probably fade. But if Ojiako plays too, and Josh plays the 4 he might be effective vs slu's 4. Not expecting to win, but a win is possible.

He dropped 32 on SLU last year.

 

[GSII]

He dropped 32 on SLU last year.

Good to know bc I didn't check. Hopefully he can do the same and our guards hit shots too.

 

[Where's the party?]

Not sure why we haven't pegged Singleton as the guy to assign to Yuri. He has played decent D this year, and having him focused on stopping the other team's scorer doesn't cost us any offense. Also, I'd be rotating Oduro, Malik, and Ojiako in this game and forcing SLU to focus on the paint. This is the first time I remember playing SLU when we have a size and inside game advantage. Add in hoping that Bailey, Coop, JF and Dinkins chip in a modest contribution from 3 and we could make a game of this.

Going to be a complete homer on this one and say we break the away game curse.

GMU - 67
SLU - 65