OT: Conference Realignment

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"After a week of intense speculation that Arizona might leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12, the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) may finally be setting the ball in motion.

ABOR will convene Thursday evening in executive action to discuss 'possible legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics' for the state’s two major universities, Arizona and ASU.
It sounds increasingly likely that Arizona and ASU will make a joint decision on whether to remain in the Pac-12 or leave for the Big 12.
A source told The Action Netowrk’s Brett McMurphy: 'I find it hard to imagine the State of Arizona Board of Regents would be willing to allow one of its institutions to leave the Pac-12 while the other stays. That doesn’t seem logical.'”
 

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Sources: The Big Ten’s presidents met early Thursday morning and authorized Commissioner Tony Petitti to explore expansion and bring them back more information on Oregon and Washington as potential Big Ten members. No offers have been made,


11:51 AM · Aug 3, 2023

So what’s going to happen to Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State is everyone else leaves? PAC merges with Mountain West?

Was also thinking about this: if ASU, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington were valuable enough to these other conferences to get significant payouts from media organizations, how badly did the PAC-12 commissioner have to be at negotiations to have his entire conference leave within two seasons?
 

tblack33

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It feels like we are 2-3 years max out from some basketball realignment on the east coast. The second Dayton, vcu, or maybe SLU move, the rest are going to start getting antsy.
 

GMU79

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It feels like we are 2-3 years max out from some basketball realignment on the east coast. The second Dayton, vcu, or maybe SLU move, the rest are going to start getting antsy.
Probably so.
 

KAOriginal

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It feels like we are 2-3 years max out from some basketball realignment on the east coast. The second Dayton, vcu, or maybe SLU move, the rest are going to start getting antsy.

I figure they get picked by the Big East as it needs to solidify its basketball imaging since they lack the football firepower and need that hoops calling card against the P5/4....

We will be part of the NEW "Colonial Atlantic Conference"...lol
 

GMUgemini

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I figure they get picked by the Big East as it needs to solidify its basketball imaging since they lack the football firepower and need that hoops calling card against the P5/4....

We will be part of the NEW "Colonial Atlantic Conference"...lol

Naw. A10 should still be Ok, especially if Cincy and Memphis find exits from the AAC. Snap up Wichita State and maybe Drake and/or Charleston. Should still be a solid conference.

That is if the Big East doesn’t take WSU for themselves.
 

jessej

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Was also thinking about this: if ASU, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington were valuable enough to these other conferences to get significant payouts from media organizations, how badly did the PAC-12 commissioner have to be at negotiations to have his entire conference leave within two seasons?
 

jessej

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So what’s going to happen to Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State is everyone else leaves? PAC merges with Mountain West?

WSU and OSU are screwed - they will end up in a lesser conference with lesser money which will hurt all of their non revenue sports. Mountain West Conference may be their best bet. And Cal may need to join them.

Stanford can survive a year or 2 as an independent. Short of getting a less than full membership deal for the Big 10/16 they can piece together a schedule of regional and national rivalries, a few Nerd games, and a Div I AA team. Schedule like Cal, UCLA, USC, ND, Rice, Vanderbilt, Army, Navy, Duke and the bottom rungs of the Big 10 and ACC.
Oregon and Washington will be less than full share members of the Big 10 - $25 to $30M per year plus a travel stipend. They will have a set of metrics and a time frame to meet them in order to qualify for full memberships - if the other Big 10 teams vote to allow them in. Metrics include ticket sales, attendance, tv ratings, etc, etc.

Many of the non-revenue sports at these schools will be forced into regional schedules and some will drop some sports due to lack of funding but in line with Title IX considerations.
 

GMUgemini

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WSU and OSU are screwed - they will end up in a lesser conference with lesser money which will hurt all of their non revenue sports. Mountain West Conference may be their best bet. And Cal may need to join them.

Stanford can survive a year or 2 as an independent. Short of getting a less than full membership deal for the Big 10/16 they can piece together a schedule of regional and national rivalries, a few Nerd games, and a Div I AA team. Schedule like Cal, UCLA, USC, ND, Rice, Vanderbilt, Army, Navy, Duke and the bottom rungs of the Big 10 and ACC.
Oregon and Washington will be less than full share members of the Big 10 - $25 to $30M per year plus a travel stipend. They will have a set of metrics and a time frame to meet them in order to qualify for full memberships - if the other Big 10 teams vote to allow them in. Metrics include ticket sales, attendance, tv ratings, etc, etc.

Many of the non-revenue sports at these schools will be forced into regional schedules and some will drop some sports due to lack of funding but in line with Title IX considerations.

I would not take that deal if I were them, both Oregon and Washington have by far more revenue than just joined USC and UCLA (like close to 50 million more a year).

We’re talking about two schools who would be ahead of Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland (plus the above mentioned California schools).
 
OP
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"Arizona is in deep discussions about joining the Big 12, sources told ESPN, with a deal expected to be finalized in the near future.

The school is amid the final steps, sources said, including detailing the move in an Arizona board of regents meeting Thursday night. Big 12 presidents and CEOs met Thursday to vote on approving the move, sources confirmed to ESPN, another sign of the likelihood of it happening.

Barring an unexpected turn in the board of regents meeting, Arizona's decision is expected be formalized soon, sources said."

"The spotlight will quickly shift to Pac-12 members Arizona State and Utah, which could take a few days to come to a determination on their future. The Big 12 also has courted those two, the final of the four so-called 'Corner Schools.' But they always have been on a separate timeline from Colorado and Arizona, which both had meetings with the Big 12 in recent months before jumping aboard.

Utah and Arizona State have been more conservative in their approach, but sources said the tenor on that has begun changing recently with the flurry of events in realignment.

Arizona State president Michael Crow has been a staunch supporter of the Pac-12, as he'd long been an advocate of former commissioner Larry Scott, even after the league's trajectory went wayward. But the urgency of the league likely being reduced to eight schools has begun to push Crow past his deep loyalty to the Pac-12.

Utah has been conservative in its realignment discussions, but the two-time defending Pac-12 football champion appears to also be more open toward Big 12 discussions. More discussions would be necessary for either Arizona State or Utah to move."
 
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ACC is next unless the conference gives more money to Clemson/FSU/Miami/UNC/UVA/VT....quite frankly they should've had that model in the first place.

Wake/GT/SYR/BC/PITT/NC State/Louisville/Duke aren't gonna fill seats in football stadiums....
 

bravesfan

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ACC is next unless the conference gives more money to Clemson/FSU/Miami/UNC/UVA/VT....quite frankly they should've had that model in the first place.

Wake/GT/SYR/BC/PITT/NC State/Louisville/Duke aren't gonna fill seats in football stadiums....

NC State is fourth in the ACC when it comes to attendance -- ahead of Miami.

Lack of football attendance isn't the reason they'll get passed over.
 

Walter

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No way any ACC teams get out of the GOR.

If the PAC had dissolved sooner, likely UCF and Cincy would not be in the Big12. Big12 probably wishes WV wasn't a member now.

Big East will never accept vcu as a member. UConn was the exception due to history.

Wichita State made a bad basketball hire, they are not good at the moment. They screwed themselves by moving to the AAC. They are playing bad, far-away teams for very little money.
 

Patriot8

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No way any ACC teams get out of the GOR.

If the PAC had dissolved sooner, likely UCF and Cincy would not be in the Big12. Big12 probably wishes WV wasn't a member now.

Big East will never accept vcu as a member. UConn was the exception due to history.

Wichita State made a bad basketball hire, they are not good at the moment. They screwed themselves by moving to the AAC. They are playing bad, far-away teams for very little money.
Yeah those ACC schools would need a miracle.

If I am understanding the current agreement correctly, I believe that Notre Dame can't join a conference other than the ACC until 2036, even being a non-football member.

I would say that the ACC should fight to add Cincinnati and West Virginia, but their media rights situation is significantly better in the Big 12, and I doubt their added value to the ACC would move the needle.

UConn is an interesting case. Big 12 seemed to be really interested because they really value basketball. Obviously makes more geographic sense in the ACC.
 

jessej

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I would not take that deal if I were them, both Oregon and Washington have by far more revenue than just joined USC and UCLA (like close to 50 million more a year).

We’re talking about two schools who would be ahead of Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland (plus the above mentioned California schools).
They can't get full member shares because the current Big 10 teams are not willing to give up any of their money - they are late to the party and the best stuff is gone - they are in a no win situation

SEC doesn't want them
they don't want the Big 12
and the ACC is about to have their own problems with splitting up money
 

Patriot8

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They can't get full member shares because the current Big 10 teams are not willing to give up any of their money - they are late to the party and the best stuff is gone - they are in a no win situation

SEC doesn't want them
they don't want the Big 12
and the ACC is about to have their own problems with splitting up money
Their partial shares in the Big 10 would still likely dwarf the reported 20 million guarantee in the Pac 12 / Apple deal. Looks like all the Pac 12 implosion momentum has stopped and theirs a meeting taking place right now to finalize the GOR for the conference.

Would be an amazing turn of events.
 

jessej

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Looks like all the Pac 12 implosion momentum has stopped and theirs a meeting taking place right now to finalize the GOR for the conference.

Would be an amazing turn of events.
Do you have a reference? As I see the opposite.

Arizona gone by next Tuesday.
Washington and Oregon gone by next Friday.
I can understand OSU, WSU, Cal and Stanford wanting to stay - but the others have more money waiting elsewhere.

 
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