Game 27: GMU (21-5 / 9-4) vs Dayton (15-9 / 6-5) on Wednesday, February 18, at 7:00 PM.

[GMUgemini]

Wrong again. It’s impressive really.

9-5 is a half-game ahead of 8-5.

So AT THIS MOMENT, Mason is still solo third.

Most likely after Saturday there will be two more teams also at 9-5 (unless Joes chokes against Loyola).

Dayton and Duquesne play each other. One of them will jump ahead of us on tiebreakers.

We have a chance to be in 4th place if we can get our crap together and beat St. Joes next week.

 

[gmujim92]

Most likely after Saturday there will be two more teams also at 9-5 (unless Joes chokes against Loyola).

Dayton and Duquesne play each other. One of them will jump ahead of us on tiebreakers.

We have a chance to be in 4th place if we can get our crap together and beat St. Joes next week.

Mason literally cannot be any lower than fourth place by the end of the weekend regardless of how the games play out.

Either Dayton or Duquesne will be third. If Saint Joe’s beats Loyola as expected, Mason holds the fourth-place tiebreaker for now.

That was my only point. We’re not sixth now and won’t be unless we lose in Philly next Wednesday.

 

[NewPatriot]

Wrong again. It’s impressive really.

9-5 is a half-game ahead of 8-5.

So AT THIS MOMENT, Mason is still solo third.

Most likely after Saturday there will be two more teams also at 9-5 (unless Joes chokes against Loyola).

Dayton and Duquesne play each other. One of them will jump ahead of us on tiebreakers.

We have a chance to be in 4th place if we can get our crap together and beat St. Joes next week.

Thats a big IF given their current level of play.

The fact is both teams have the tiebreaker over Mason.

Both teams have a much easier schedule than Mason.

The Patriots loses the double bye to either if they end up tied with either team for the 4th best record.

 

[Verdad]

The team has completely shat the bed and largely destroyed their chances of finishing top 4 with the home losses to Dayton and Duquesne, and thus the tie breakers.

Warren Nolan modeling predicts us to finish 10-8 in a tie with Duquesne, bumping us down to 6th seed.

Just 16 days ago we still had an outside shot at an at large with a strong finish, now we are almost certainly going to finish near .500 in conference and outside top 4. Crazy collapse.

 

[jruby]

Thats a big IF given their current level of play.

The fact is both teams have the tiebreaker over Mason.

Both teams have a much easier schedule than Mason.

The Patriots loses the double bye to either if they end up tied with either team for the 4th best record.

If Dayton and St Joes win, Wouldn't Mason still be in 3rd with a 3 way tie? Dayton lost to St Joes, Mason beat St Joes, Dayton beat Mason. All 3 1-1. Mason beat vcu no one else beat the top 2 seeds. If we are talking about rest of way then sure but there's a lot that can change there.

If Duquesne wins Same thing they lost to St Joes. So no Mason would stay in third no matter what happens.

After Wednesday a win or lose changes things. A win by Mason knocks St Joes out of the 3 way tie and then Dayton or Duquesne would move ahead of them dropping them to the 4. A loss and they drop down to 6 as they wouldn't have tie breakers over Dayton or Duquesne unless of course St Joes loses to Loyola then there would be a 3 way tie for 4th and I think Mason would drop then as they would be 1-2 vs the other 2. I'm not digging down into more scenarios past that because it's too many. Let someone with an algorithm run the odds.

Key Aspects of the A10 3-Way Tiebreaker:

• Step 1: Group Head-to-Head: Records of the tied teams against each other are calculated. The team with the best record (highest winning percentage) wins, and the lowest wins; ties are broken in descending order.
• Step 2: Comparison Against Top Teams: If the group record is identical, the teams are compared based on their performance against the highest-ranked team in the conference, then the next highest, and so on.

 

[GMUgemini]

The team has completely shat the bed and largely destroyed their chances of finishing top 4 with the home losses to Dayton and Duquesne, and thus the tie breakers.

Warren Nolan modeling predicts us to finish 10-8 in a tie with Duquesne, bumping us down to 6th seed.

Just 16 days ago we still had an outside shot at an at large with a strong finish, now we are almost certainly going to finish near .500 in conference and outside top 4. Crazy collapse.

To be fair, it is the 6th seed’s turn to win the AQ. It has been alternating between 1 and 6 for awhile.

2025: vcu 1 seed
2024: Duquesne 6 seed
2023: vcu 1 seed
2022: Richmond 6 seed
2021: Bonaventure 1 seed
2020: Tournament cancelled
2019: SLU 6 seed

Interestingly Duquesne, Richmond, and SLU all finished 10-8 the season they won.

 

[Verdad]

To be fair, it is the 6th seed’s turn to win the AQ. It has been alternating between 1 and 6 for awhile.

2025: vcu 1 seed
2024: Duquesne 6 seed
2023: vcu 1 seed
2022: Richmond 6 seed
2021: Bonaventure 1 seed
2020: Tournament cancelled
2019: SLU 6 seed

Interestingly Duquesne, Richmond, and SLU all finished 10-8 the season they won.

That is insane - nice find!

Wow - we got em right where we want em!

 

[FlPatriot]

To be fair, it is the 6th seed’s turn to win the AQ. It has been alternating between 1 and 6 for awhile.

2025: vcu 1 seed
2024: Duquesne 6 seed
2023: vcu 1 seed
2022: Richmond 6 seed
2021: Bonaventure 1 seed
2020: Tournament cancelled
2019: SLU 6 seed

Interestingly Duquesne, Richmond, and SLU all finished 10-8 the season they won.

We are really stretching now. Shall we get the providence AD’s Ouija board (yes, the one used as the search committee that hired KE) to properly assess our chances?

 

[psyclone]

We are really stretching now. Shall we get the providence AD’s Ouija board (yes, the one used as the search committee that hired KE) to properly assess our chances?

Obviously, we need to regain the form from earlier in the conference season, like when we beat vcu at home, in order to think about running the table in the A10 tournament. But the past results do indicate that you don't have to be top 4 to stand a chance.

 

[Jack Strop]

Obviously, we need to regain the form from earlier in the conference season, like when we beat vcu at home, in order to think about running the table in the A10 tournament. But the past results do indicate that you don't have to be top 4 to stand a chance.

The format changed back to tournament play for five straight days. The last two or three seasons, it started on Tuesday and gave everyone Thursday off. Not so this season. Therefore, a top-4 finish is vital to success.

 

[Pablo]

To be fair, it is the 6th seed’s turn to win the AQ. It has been alternating between 1 and 6 for awhile.

2025: vcu 1 seed
2024: Duquesne 6 seed
2023: vcu 1 seed
2022: Richmond 6 seed
2021: Bonaventure 1 seed
2020: Tournament cancelled
2019: SLU 6 seed

Interestingly Duquesne, Richmond, and SLU all finished 10-8 the season they won.

Generally, if you want to win the A-10 tournament, you have to go through vcu. If my math is correct, vcu has played in 12 A-10 tournaments: winning 3 and losing to the eventual champion 7 times (including 6 finals).

 

[psyclone]

Generally, if you want to win the A-10 tournament, you have to go through vcu. If my math is correct, vcu has played in 12 A-10 tournaments: winning 3 and losing to the eventual champion 7 times (including 6 finals).

Hate to say it, but I agree. Watching them outplay the Billikens--currently ahead by 9 at the half after beginning the game 11-0.

 

[GMUgemini]

Generally, if you want to win the A-10 tournament, you have to go through vcu. If my math is correct, vcu has played in 12 A-10 tournaments: winning 3 and losing to the eventual champion 7 times (including 6 finals).

Yes, true. Although there was one year 8th seeded URI knocked them off in the quarters. That might have been the year 3rd seeded Davidson won (2018?)

Kind like what happened in 2008 when we beat W&M in the finals instead of top seeded vcu.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Hate to say it, but I agree. Watching them outplay the Billikens--currently ahead by 9 at the half after beginning the game 11-0.

vcu down by 16 with 3:30 left in the game.

 

[gmujim92]

That is insane - nice find!

Wow - we got em right where we want em!

Honestly if we’re not gonna finish third, probably just as well to be sixth. Gotta stay away from SLU’s side of the bracket for as long as possible and hope somebody knocks them off.

OF COURSE, none of that matters unless our guys start playing winning basketball again. Not sure the current form would be good enough to beat anybody in the league.

 

[psyclone]

vcu down by 16 with 3:30 left in the game.

Some pushing and shoving as SLU was dribbling the game out. Benches cleared. Made for an ugly ending.

VCU closes with 4 players as benches clear in loss to Saint Louis

A chaotic, benches-clearing altercation in the final seconds of Friday's game between Saint Louis and vcu resulted in the Rams finishing the contest with only four players.

www.espn.com

Billikens really turned the tables in the last 10 minutes.

 

[GMU79]

It's been a long time since I've been this disappointed in a season.

 

[gmujim92]

It's been a long time since I've been this disappointed in a season.

Seriously? We’re 21-6 and still have a shot at a double bye with an entirely new team. I can’t imagine that anyone wouldn’t have taken that before the season started.

 

[psyclone]

It's been a long time since I've been this disappointed in a season.

It is tough seeing all the wheels come off in the last few weeks after such a great start had many of us dreaming of what might happen in the post season. But your memory must be pretty short or your definition of "a long time" is different than most fan's.

 

[GMU79]

Seriously? We’re 21-6 and still have a shot at a double bye with an entirely new team. I can’t imagine that anyone wouldn’t have taken that before the season started.

Yes, seriously. To crater like this is more disappointing (to me) than to have a lost season from the get go.