Alright I finally have time to sit down and type out some thoughts. I’ll lead by saying this: I’m probably going to be wrong, and I am rooting for this being wrong.
I think we are going to be the most talented team in recent history to finish bottom half of the league. I think we absolutely have the most talented team that we’ve had since 2010-2011, but our roster makeup is downright perplexing in some ways.
We are one of the oldest teams in the league, but will potentially be relying on big minutes from multiple true freshman, including potentially at our starting PG spot.
I may be one of the few guys to have been upset from Day 1 to see XJ transfer out. Far from a perfect player, but he was much better than the constant dumping-on he was subjected to. His 4.6 assists per game was one of the highest ever for a Mason player.
That said, I think the need for a pure point-guard is significantly mitigated by a faster style of play that emphasizes fast breaks, getting the ball up the court more quickly, and movement. We saw that w/the 10-11 too and no true PG.
We are deeper than we have been in years, but somehow still not very deep outside the 2-4. For all the talk from the staff on how hard it was on tickets body to play the 4 in the A10 all year this year — everyone is still projecting him to start and play most of his minutes there! And it’s because we don’t have other options.
Maybe not too many options w/that exact style of lineup, but more pieces to tinker with in the front-court, like an Oduro Ojiako match w/Ticket as more of a wing. Or a 4 guard lineup with the ability to put plenty of height on the floor between Ticket, Cooper, Bailey, Fernandez, and Singleton; 5 guys w/range all out to the arc and 6'4" or taller. Or the other direction and go w/three bigs, like Ojiako, Oduro and Jones at the 5, 4 & 3 positions as well as Singleton and Bailey or Gaines. That's a huge lineup w/a pair of guys that can still stretch the floor by being legit threats from deep.
I also feel like Blake Jones takes a significant step forward this year and can take some of those minutes. He's listed on the roster at 216 lbs, which will never get him confused for Shaquille O'Neal, but is 16 lbs heavier than he was listed last year and feels like a very positive sign about his off-season prep for year 2.
Finally, the league is just pretty brutal this year. Talent is way up across the board, and the middle of the pack teams are going to beat the dog shit out of each other. If you can look at our schedule and pencil in away wins at all of the top teams we have to go to then pass me a bottle of whatever you are drinking. It’s brutal.
Yep. St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Chicago, Dayton, Kingston... there's some tough ones in there.
But we also get St. Joes, La Salle, GW, Fordham, UMass, and Davidson at home. I don't see anyone in that list that makes me think, yep, we're probably gonna lose that one.
Optimistically, 8-1 at home and 3-6 on the road for an 11-7 finish? That's probably good for either 4th place finish and the last Day 3 bid, or a 5th place finish and matched to the #4 seed on a neutral court for a chance to make the semis.
It's def. a brutal league this year, but it's brutal for everyone else too.
Dayton has to play vcu twice and St. Louis on the road.
St. Louis also has to play vcu twice and at Richmond, Loyola, and UMass.
vcu has four games against St. Louis and Dayton. Richmond twice which is a rivalry both teams are always up for, and play at Rhode Island, Loyola, and Davidson.
Loyola has to play in a new gymnasium and travel arrangements against new teams w/players and a coaching style they're not familiar with every conference game this year.
UMass has a new coach and turned over roster to come together. They start out on the road at St. Bonaventure, then get St. Louis, and then on the road to GW again. Plus we get them at home.
Davidson - can Matt fill Daddy's shoes? Guess we'll see.
Richmond - We get them at home, first conference game of the season, which is as about as ideal timing as we could hope. Tyler Burton is back, but no Golden, Gilyard, or Cayo. No Sherrod or Wilson either.
We have 3 starters back in Oduro, Cooper, and Gaines which is about as solid a trio as anyone has returning. Polite as a 4th returning starter if you count the final games. The top-ranked recruit in the A10 w/a head start on practicing w/the team, and an impact transfer that's already had two seasons w/our coach.
