Year one half way (slightly over) review

[psyclone]

2 more wins gives Paulsen 9, the same number he had in his first year at Bucknell. Also true of Coach L's first year here, and Hewitt's last year at Mason.

 

[GMU84fanman]

I'm just curious if DP will need to change up the D to throw off the other teams offensive flow. I see our D is solid but one demensional as has been his way at Bucknell too. I dont think we can stay in top 4 as a one demensional Defense. This isnt re this season, moreso his style throughout his career.

One dimensional or not, IMHO there is nothing wrong with our defensive philosophy -- we just don't have many guys who are very good on that end of the court right now.

Tend to agree with GSII on this particular point. Watching Martelli switch defenses and looks to feel out his opponent was tactically smart against an inexperienced GMU squad. Although he did not stay in the 1-3-1 for long, it made GMU react tentatively to the change in defense. While we can argue the merits of staying in a basic man-to-man defense, there are times when shifting the defense can prove quite effective in causing a team to react to the change. Shifting to variable zone defenses from time-to-time can break the other team's rhythm causing uncertainty and eroding confidence.

More to the point of the thread, I have been impressed with Paulsen and the team on balance. Obviously they are young and what experience they have has had to be reconsidered, but the effort is there and the fact that they are sharing the ball is refreshing. As has been pointed out, they really need to work on defense, but I believe progress is being made and 18 games into the season, I am optimistic about the future. Something new to these parts in some time.

 

[Bricker]

We can bloviate all we want in this thread, but the reality is (and I don't understand why some of us forget this game in and game out and start complaining about switing to zone or turnovers) is that we have zero shooters on this team at the moment. We shouldn't even be on the court against A-10 teams right now. Sure, a couple of freshman will get hot for a game or two. But our most consistent scorer is a guy who's stroke is downright ugly by any standard. Think about that.

For the most part, we're turning in box scores shooting 18-23% from 3. And yet we're watching a cohesive team that is improving and developing rather quickly. If that's not a huge testatment to Paulson (a coach who needs the 3 ball to make his engine run) and what he's done with these guys this year, then I don't know what is...

Very excited for the next couple of years. Any more wins this season is just gravy.

 

[Herndon]

We can bloviate all we want in this thread, but the reality is (and I don't understand why some of us forget this game in and game out and start complaining about switing to zone or turnovers) is that we have zero shooters on this team at the moment.

Screen Name checks out.

 

[GSII]

Some would argue if you can't shoot, then getting easy transition points is next best thing. Paulsen hasn't turned to this type of defensive strategy in his career. IMO, at this level, you have to do a little more.

In current season games where we see what DP is trying to do (when they are playing well) and we get excited about the future, you can also see that during wins, the opposing teams are simply missing shots that on a different day, they would make. Granted we do have a window cleaner....Bottom line, our defense is tough, but its basic. Again, nothing to do with the current roster, but our defense has to be more of a force/disruptive/mentally agonizing etc. In this league, teams with good guards will eventually settle down and find their groove and make the shots they were missing. Then what?

 

[Bricker]

Some would argue if you can't shoot, then getting easy transition points is next best thing. Paulsen hasn't turned to this type of defensive strategy in his career. IMO, at this level, you have to do a little more.

In current season games where we see what DP is trying to do (when they are playing well) and we get excited about the future, you can also see that during wins, the opposing teams are simply missing shots that on a different day, they would make. Granted we do have a window cleaner....Bottom line, our defense is tough, but its basic. Again, nothing to do with the current roster, but our defense has to be more of a force/disruptive/mentally agonizing etc. In this league, teams with good guards will eventually settle down and find their groove and make the shots they were missing. Then what?

Couple of things:

1. When it comes to D, we should consider everyone on our roster a freshman.

2. This team has not even come close to mastering Paulson's "basic" defense. And I'm guessing that if they haven't done that, he isn't going to add another scheme to the mix. Doesn't seem to be his nature. Let's start looking for hints of disruptive wrinkles 1-2 years down the road.

 

[gmujim92]

I'm pretty sure I saw our guards try to close out hard a few times against St. Bonaventure because Posley and Adams were killing us with the 3, then they just started driving for layups.

This is the reality: Unless you have guys with the quickness to pressure the ball and recover without giving up one layup after another, the percentages say you're better off building a human wall 15 feet from the basket and forcing the opponent to shoot over it.

With the new "freedom of movement" rules, even typically stingy defensive teams like Duke are giving up points in bunches this season.

Does that mean our players shouldn't do a better job of getting a hand up on shooters? Of course not.

But sometimes the other team makes shots. Switching to a more complicated defense that is beyond the skillset of most of our players won't change that.

 

[GSII]

I guess you missed the part about it not being about the current roster and moreso about his career style on Defense.

 

[Vurbel]

I want to know what Paulsen would have done with Pearson, Morrison, DJ, Vaughns, Allen, Wright, Gray, Edwards, Williams, Arledge, and Bennett (the team Hewitt took over).

We wouldn't have been down 32-4 against vcu, that's for sure. And no, I haven't gotten over that.

 

[gmutom]

I think reality will probably hit the hardest next year, because we could take a step backwards. Thompson isn't dominating like we thought he might due to his injury, but it can't be understated how much he still changes the game on both ends of the court. Limiting him offensively is still the top priority of every team we face, and he completely alters how teams play on the defensive side — especially second-chance points.

To Bricker's previous point about our lack of consistent perimeter shooters, the scariest part is we are getting a lot of wide-open looks due to team's collapsing on Thompson. Imagine what our FG % will be when those shots are contested due to teams no longer having to pay as much attention to our front court.

Paulsen is smart enough to realize our strengths and weaknesses, so my hunch is we will see more guard-heavy lineups next year and a lot of dribble penetration with Moore, Otis, Grayer, Boyd and Abrams. There is a lot to be positive about moving forward. I just think some fans might be in for a rude awakening if they expect next season to be better than this. It's very possible we are a few years away from seeing that progression.

 

[Herndon]

Ugh, that feels uncomfortably true.

 

[GMUgemini]

I think reality will probably hit the hardest next year, because we could take a step backwards. Thompson isn't dominating like we thought he might due to his injury, but it can't be understated how much he still changes the game on both ends of the court. Limiting him offensively is still the top priority of every team we face, and he completely alters how teams play on the defensive side — especially second-chance points.

To Bricker's previous point about our lack of consistent perimeter shooters, the scariest part is we are getting a lot of wide-open looks due to team's collapsing on Thompson. Imagine what our FG % will be when those shots are contested due to teams no longer having to pay as much attention to our front court.

Paulsen is smart enough to realize our strengths and weaknesses, so my hunch is we will see more guard-heavy lineups next year and a lot of dribble penetration with Moore, Otis, Grayer, Boyd and Abrams. There is a lot to be positive about moving forward. I just think some fans might be in for a rude awakening if they expect next season to be better than this. It's very possible we are a few years away from seeing that progression.

It depends on Jalen and/or Relvao I think, Tom, and how ready they are to step into the 5 role next season. Jalen is a much smaller, but much more skilled low post player and has shown some flashes of "getting it" in the last few games. He's not going to be the dominant rebounder Thompson is, but he gives us more versatility on the offenses side and defensively he should be solid.

Relvao, on the other hand, seems more like the prototypical pick and pop big Paulsen likes.

I think we're going to miss Marko a lot more, personally, with his basketball IQ and ability play the high-low game. But I also think Temara is ready to contribute right away and is a lot more athletic than Marko ever will be.

There's a ton of question marks going into next season, but I don't think you can count out the experience Otis, Grayer and Abram are getting this season, or the impact Boyd, Temara, Relvao, and Kier will have the next.

 

[gmutom]

Gemini, I agree there are a lot of positives going into next year that excite me. I wasn't trying to dampen the mood but more so prepare some fans that there will definitely be some additional growing pains. We should without doubt see improvement from this year's freshmen, and I think Moore can get even better than he already has. I really believe he is one of the most underrated players in the A10.

I do wish I shared your enthusiasm regarding Jalen. I think we have seen what we are going to get, which is flashes of greatness but a lot of inconsistency. If he can find a way to stay out of foul trouble (a HUGE "if"), he certainly has shown glimpses of being able to contribute. I honestly have no clue what Revalo will contribute, but his upside is definitely promising. I'm not banking on Temara being here until he signs on the dotted line.

 

[GMUgemini]

Regarding Jalen, I am hoping for a Mike Morrison-esque improvement in his ability to play within himself after spending an entire year with Paulsen and staff (basically cutting down on the fouls and turnovers), but that's wishful thinking on my part, I know).

Having Temara take a prep year would change the dynamics a lot of the team in my mind, because I really think he could compete to start at the 4 -- Abrams at the 4 is really suboptimal at this point and who else would you start there -- Dixon, Relvao? I don't know.

Whatever happens, the frontcourt is a mess of question marks next year.

 

[gmujim92]

Regarding Jalen, I am hoping for a Mike Morrison-esque improvement in his ability to play within himself after spending an entire year with Paulsen and staff (basically cutting down on the fouls and turnovers), but that's wishful thinking on my part, I know).

Having Temara take a prep year would change the dynamics a lot of the team in my mind, because I really think he could compete to start at the 4 -- Abrams at the 4 is really suboptimal at this point and who else would you start there -- Dixon, Relvao? I don't know.

Whatever happens, the frontcourt is a mess of question marks next year.

I'm not counting on much from Dixon, Relvao or Temara next season -- even if all three are active -- because it usually takes so much longer for bigs to get acclimated to the physicality of the college game.

Regardless, we will once again be a guard-dominated team next season. I wouldn't be surprised at all if DP starts Moore, Livingston, Grayer and Abram and just plugs in Jenkins at the 5 -- with Murrell, Boyd, Kier and Newman providing depth off the bench.

With a year of development, it's a group that should be significantly improved in taking care of the ball and perimeter shooting.

Playing time for the young bigs would depend on whether Jenkins can avoid fouling and Abram gets strong enough to play the stretch 4 without getting overpowered.

 

[Patriotsince81]

I'm waiting until 2017 - 2018 before we begin to be respectable from the standpoint of win/loss record. 12 this year I am delighted. 10 next year I am satisfied.

 

[psyclone]

rpiforecast currently projects us as winning 5 conference games---up from 4 which is where it has been for most of the season. So that would give us 11 wins for the year.