Here's my analysis on the formula for an A10 team to have a shot at an at-large, based off the past 3-4 years.
In conference - Can't lose more than 3 games and preferably none at home to mid-bottom to far bottom tier teams (no upsets). 4 loses (MAY be acceptable in some years) but we really need to keep it at 3 and under losses. 15-3, or better, is where we need to be.
OOC - We HAVE to schedule better. Put us in an opportunity to get good wins at a neutral or away site, don't be scared to schedule tough. Also, we need to destroy (consistent 15+ point wins) the lesser quad 3 and 4 teams and pick up wins against good competition - in Quad 1 and 2 ranges.
vcu is predicted to be in the tourney now.... and their best OOC win this year is VT and/or South Florida. Other than that.... they went 15-3 in conference and tested themselves in a MTE tournament. They lost to solid teams in Utah State (lost by 3), NC State, #22 Vandy, New Mexico (lost by 3). They only lost to a ranked St. Louis twice and us in conference.... they took care of business in their conference slate which means a ton.
I think the NCAA committee evaluators always value consistency in a team's conference - a big factor I've heard conference chairs state acceptance on a team is that they were consistent (meaning good) throughout the year and especially in their conference.
Here's the freaking annual blueprint.
Love,
Tweeder