Game 29: GMU (16-12 / 8-7) at Dayton (19-9 / 11-4) on Saturday, February 25, at 6:00 PM.

[Patriotsince81]

GMU is 4-10 against the Flyers all-time.

KenPom: Gives us just a 17% chance of winning this one.
GMU - 153
Dayton - 60

NET:
Mason - 140
Dayton - 74

Dayton is currently 19-9 and 11-4 on the season. They are 13-1 at home, 5-5 on the road, and 1-3 at neutral sites.

Wins: Lindenwood (73-46), SMU (74-62), Robert Morris (60-51), Western Michigan (67-47), Southeastern Louisiana (80-74), UNC Asheville (79-56), Wyoming (66-49), Alcorn St. (88-46), Duquesne (69-57), Davidson (69-55), St Joe’s (76-56), Fordham (82-58), Davidson (68-61), Richmond (86-60), Loyola Chicago (85-81 OT), vcu (62-58), St. Louis (70-56), Loyola Chicago (65-49), UMass (72-54)

Losses: UNLV (60-52), Wisconsin (43-42), NC State (76-64), BYU (79-75 OT), VA Tech (77-49), vcu (63-62), GW (76-69), Rhode Island (75-70), St. Bonaventure (68-59),

Schedule: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule
Roster: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
Stats: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022/pdf

Dayton is led by 6’10” DaRon Holmes (17.6 ppg & 8.0 reb) and 6’8” Toumani Camara (14.1 ppg & 9.1 reb). Six other Flyers play substantial minutes and contribute in a variety of ways. 6’9” Mustapha Amzil (9.4 ppg), 6’2” Kobe Elvis (8.5 ppg), 6’0” Malachi Smith (8.0 ppg), 6’6” RJ Blakney (7.1 ppg), 6’2” Koby Brea (7.0 ppg) have all started this year.

Dayton averages 68.9 points per game while giving up just 60.7 (1st in the A10 and 11th in the nation). The Flyers shoot 46.9% from the floor and 33.4% from 3. Opponents are shooting just 39.0% from the field and 28.2% from 3. In other words they play defense like KE wants us to. They shoot 69.7% from the free throw line. The Flyers are currently out rebounding their opponents by 6.1 boards per game. They average 13.0 turnovers per game.

The game is on ESPN.

My prediction: They are big up front. They are well coached. They defend very well. They play in front of an average of 13,047 ravenous fans at home. I’ve had this down as a loss from day one. I hope we come out and compete well enough to keep it respectable. Flyers 68 - Patriots 52. Hope I’m wrong.

Discuss.

 

[GMU79]

Dayton plays UMass on Wednesday, February 22nd. I’ll update records and rankings Thursday morning.

GMU is 4-10 against the Flyers all-time.

KenPom: Gives us just a 19% chance of winning this one.
GMU - 148
Dayton - 70

NET:
Mason - 140
Dayton - 74

Dayton is currently 18-9 and 10-4 on the season. They are 13-1 at home, 4-5 on the road, and 1-3 at neutral sites.

Wins: Lindenwood (73-46), SMU (74-62), Robert Morris (60-51), Western Michigan (67-47), Southeastern Louisiana (80-74), UNC Asheville (79-56), Wyoming (66-49), Alcorn St. (88-46), Duquesne (69-57), Davidson (69-55), St Joe’s (76-56), Fordham (82-58), Davidson (68-61), Richmond (86-60), Loyola Chicago (85-81 OT), vcu (62-58), St. Louis (70-56), Loyola Chicago (65-49)

Losses: UNLV (60-52), Wisconsin (43-42), NC State (76-64), BYU (79-75 OT), VA Tech (77-49), vcu (63-62), GW (76-69), Rhode Island (75-70), St. Bonaventure (68-59),

Schedule: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule
Roster: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
Stats: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022/pdf

Dayton is led by 6’10” DaRon Holmes (17.6 ppg & 8.0 reb) and 6’8” Toumani Camara (14.1 ppg & 9.1 reb). Six other Flyers play substantial minutes and contribute in a variety of ways. 6’9” Mustapha Amzil (9.4 ppg), 6’2” Kobe Elvis (8.5 ppg), 6’0” Malachi Smith (8.0 ppg), 6’6” RJ Blakney (7.1 ppg), 6’2” Koby Brea (7.0 ppg) have all started this year.

Dayton averages 68.9 points per game while giving up just 60.7 (1st in the A10 and 11th in the nation). The Flyers shoot 46.9% from the floor and 33.4% from 3. Opponents are shooting just 39.0% from the field and 28.2% from 3. In other words they play defense like KE wants us to. They shoot 69.7% from the free throw line. The Flyers are currently out rebounding their opponents by 6.1 boards per game. They average 13.0 turnovers per game.

The game is on ESPN.

My prediction: They are big up front. They are well coached. They defend very well. They play in front of an average of 13,047 ravenous fans at home. I’ve had this down as a loss from day one. I hope we come out and compete well enough to keep it respectable. Flyers 68 - Patriots 52. Hope I’m wrong.

Discuss.

Yes, it would be a great win, but as you say, pretty unlikely.
Still, things are looking up for us, so you never know. Chaminade anyone?

 

[Jack Strop]

Yes, it would be a great win, but as you say, pretty unlikely.
Still, things are looking up for us, so you never know. Chaminade anyone?

"Chaminade"? Is that a drink? I'll take one... after Mason pulls off the stunning upset.

Gotta go in to Dayton as the hunter! GRRRRRRR!!

 

[GMU79]

"Chaminade"? Is that a drink? I'll take one... after Mason pulls off the stunning upset.

Gotta go in to Dayton as the hunter! GRRRRRRR!!

Chaminade is a NAIA team (at least it was) that in 1982 beat #1 UVa and 3-time player of the year Ralph Sampson 77-72.
Biggest upset of all-time.
If Chaminade can do that, we can do this.

 

[Jack Strop]

Chaminade is a NAIA team (at least it was) that in 1982 beat #1 UVa and 3-time player of the year Ralph Sampson 77-72.
Biggest upset of all-time.
If Chaminade can do that, we can do this.

I remember it well.

...now, how 'bout that drink?

 

[nchocola]

I would anticipate a close game here. I don’t think mason will be lacking in the effort department and I think Josh has probably had this marked on his calendar all year. They are the hunters, not the hunted here.

 

[gmujim92]

Zero point zero chance of a Mason win.

Bet the farm on Dayton.

 

[Verdad]

Zero point zero chance of a Mason win.

Bet the farm on Dayton.

Lost the farm betting on GW, so I’m actually predicting a Mason win.

Perfect storm of winning streak/confidence boost, nothing really to lose/no expectation to win, Dayton over looking us and BOOM - upset city baby!

 

[gmujim92]

Lost the farm betting on GW, so I’m actually predicting a Mason win.

Perfect storm of winning streak/confidence boost, nothing really to lose/no expectation to win, Dayton over looking us and BOOM - upset city baby!

You’re spoiling the bit lol

 

[GreenLantern]

Been a Debbie Downer so for this game

Us 77
Them 75
OT

 

[MasonFanatic]

Hoping UMass takes them to at least 4 overtimes on Wednesday.

 

[mkaufman1]

Tough road game.

Which mason team shows up? The one that was amazing against St. Louis for 38 minutes and the one that stepped on GWs throat in the second half? Or the team that couldn’t dribble or do anything against Duquense and vcu?

Hoping for more of the St. Louis and Gw road team version. Having Ticket should help Mason keep this game close.

Defending Holmes and Camara will be paramount. Maybe we throw some different things at them. And of course getting out on their shooters is important as well.

 

[Falco]

It’s going to be interesting how KE decides to play Dayton this year. Will he play multi bigs to match up against their bigs. Or will he play small ball.

I know this would never happen, but I’d like to see Henry, Oduro, Singleton,

 

[GMUgemini]

It’s going to be interesting how KE decides to play Dayton this year. Will he play multi bigs to match up against their bigs. Or will he play small ball.

I know this would never happen, but I’d like to see Henry, Oduro, Singleton,

Probably a better strategy to go small ball against them than to try to matchup with their size. Too much offense given away having Henry and Singleton out there and I’m not sure defensively they’d be any better on Amzil, Camara, Holmes than our other lineup anyway.

Much rather have Oduro setting up in the high post and forcing Holmes out from under the basket and see if we can get some driving lanes open.

But most importantly, just turn the game into a rock fight and keep the game in the 50s. This is how they won last year.

 

[PDGL Hoops]

Mason 69
Dayton 62

 

[GMUSSTN]

Chaminade is a NAIA team (at least it was) that in 1982 beat #1 UVa and 3-time player of the year Ralph Sampson 77-72.
Biggest upset of all-time.
If Chaminade can do that, we can do this.

Instead of watching the game I'll just go drive circles around the Chaminade campus

 

[TweederGMU]

Dayton has been a weirdly inconsistent team from the games I've watched on them, really a jekyll and hyde type team. Their offense looked awful and couldn't make a layup at GW and at Rhode Island and crapped the bed these games....then they go blow out UR and Saint Louis. They gave up 81 points to Loyola and only beat them by 4 at home.

They are a very beatable team... especially with our length and experience and our momentum and mindset going in to this game. We would need to shoot well from 3 and make 85% of our FT's as Dayton will foul us. Can't turn the ball over on them as they like to get out quick in transition.

The key will be limiting Camara and Holmes as these 2 seem to be the main scorers each game and they run their offense through them. Elvis has been inconsistent this year coming back from injury and doesn't score much.... Smith and Brea...seem to either be hot or cold each game so really depends on what Dayton team shows up.

Goodguys 65
Red Wagons 69

 

[tblack33]

So I actually think we matchup well with this years Dayton. Not stellar guard play but talented wings and bigs. I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a close one.

 

[MasonFanatic]

So I actually think we matchup well with this years Dayton. Not stellar guard play but talented wings and bigs. I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a close one.

I've had similar thoughts for weeks. I don't know if it will result in a win, especially at UD Arena, but I like our chances. This is not a team that is going to try to dominate us with guard play. And I expect Oduro to want to make a statement against Holmes.

Mason 63
Fayers 59

 

[BBride]

GMU 73
UD 71