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You’re right in the whole “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” part of the thinking, but I think there’s a level of P5 programs that we could occasionally snag a recruit from, and then programs like Duke, UNC, and Kentucky where once someone gets an offer to one of them it’s a done deal.
Yes, we are getting kids to come here from P5 schools, but we aren’t beating P5 schools to them. They’ve gone and either done four years and want a change or have done a year or so and realize the playing time isn’t there. Offering first may help us beat out a say, VA Tech, but I don’t see a scenario where it helps us beat out a consistent Final Four program.
Agree with your assessment in logic and principle. But I do think there is value in getting your name out there with recruits who are being pursued by the P5. It creates visibility, it communicates a vision of where we see ourselves in the future, and it may occasionally pay-off.
This is a low risk high upside maneuver.