Year one half way (slightly over) review

[Herndon]

So, I said this was a year in which wins and losses didn't matter, and that what I was looking for was progress, and to see a team with an identity. What are your thoughts through 18 games?

Here's what I see (and, admittedly, see is somewhat of an overstatement, given how few games have been on TV).

1) SEVERE growing pains. For a guy like Paulsen, who came in with a reputation for valuing taking care of the ball, this team has been EXTREMELY loose with the ball. Now, we're playing a bunch of freshmen, along with Shevon Thompson, who simply cannot handle a post to post double, but STILL. The team is averaging over 13 turnovers a game, good for 205th nationally. Not good.

Additionally, the team is almost dead last in the country in assist to turnover ratio (seriously 324 out of 351). It's baaaaaaaad. This is while starting 2 point guards. Especially not good.

Now, upside. Two of the worst offenders on the squad are Thompson and Jalen Jenkins, who are both seniors. I GUESS that's a positive, as we can largely write that off to the impact of the Virus, but I'll be curious to see how it progresses over the rest of the season. It's been pretty constant over the year (assists actually cratered about halfway through the season, but that probably corresponds to when Paulsen asked Moore to basically be the offense, so I can live with that).

2) Enticing looks from the youngsters. My man Otis, Grayer, and Abram have all looked like world beaters one day, and bums the next. Such is the life of freshmen. I'm sold on Livingston and Grayer. Those are 4 year starters, and they're going to be darn good. Otis has taken a HUGE amount on his plate, and has largely handled it like a veteran. Clearly a heady, crafty player who understands the game beyond his years. We're in very good hands with him. May never be a superstar just because he's not a prime athlete but is going to be ROCK solid over the course of his career. I have a strong feeling he's going to be looked back upon very fondly, in the same way we look back on Will Thomas.

Grayer looks the part. Long, athletic wing. Should probably get to the line more than he does, but he's a freshman, and that will come. I have very little doubt that he'll be a 15 ppg guy and a rugged wing defender.

Abram....I'd bet he'll be a success, but it's less solid than the other two. A small forward (not a wing, an old school small forward) who can get hot from the outside is valuable, but I'll have to see it sustained a little bit better and see him flash a little bit more of a well rounded game before I'm completely sold.

3) Marquise Moore being the player Marquise Moore should be. I love what Paulsen is doing with him. I have little to add other than that I think he's being developed/used perfectly, and the results speak for themselves.

Overall, I give guarded approval. Teams that play a ton of freshmen and turnover prone bigs will look sloppy, but this team is REALLY sloppy. There needs to be significant improvement in year two (and hopefully in the second half of year one). That said, you can see what he's trying to do (well rounded players that play as a unit, and distribute the ball handling, scoring, and rebounding), and it looks like he's got some pieces in place.

Thoughts?

 

[Washingtonian]

Moore is getting a lot of blocks too (20 of them, leading the team by 4 over Shevon).

 

[G M U]

Jenkins is a RS Junior.

 

[Bricker]

I would argue that Otis has yet to really have a "bad" game or streak of bad games, a la Grayer or and Abram. Kid has done it all...

 

[masonnatswiz]

The freshman look really good on offense, but their defense is no good, with exception to Abram's length . That being said, not many freshman play good defense through 18 games in their career.

 

[psyclone]

So, I said this was a year in which wins and losses didn't matter, and that what I was looking for was progress, and to see a team with an identity. What are your thoughts through 18 games?

Here's what I see (and, admittedly, see is somewhat of an overstatement, given how few games have been on TV).

1) SEVERE growing pains. For a guy like Paulsen, who came in with a reputation for valuing taking care of the ball, this team has been EXTREMELY loose with the ball. Now, we're playing a bunch of freshmen, along with Shevon Thompson, who simply cannot handle a post to post double, but STILL. The team is averaging over 13 turnovers a game, good for 205th nationally. Not good.

Additionally, the team is almost dead last in the country in assist to turnover ratio (seriously 324 out of 351). It's baaaaaaaad. This is while starting 2 point guards. Especially not good.

Now, upside. Two of the worst offenders on the squad are Thompson and Jalen Jenkins, who are both seniors. I GUESS that's a positive, as we can largely write that off to the impact of the Virus, but I'll be curious to see how it progresses over the rest of the season. It's been pretty constant over the year (assists actually cratered about halfway through the season, but that probably corresponds to when Paulsen asked Moore to basically be the offense, so I can live with that).

2) Enticing looks from the youngsters. My man Otis, Grayer, and Abram have all looked like world beaters one day, and bums the next. Such is the life of freshmen. I'm sold on Livingston and Grayer. Those are 4 year starters, and they're going to be darn good. Otis has taken a HUGE amount on his plate, and has largely handled it like a veteran. Clearly a heady, crafty player who understands the game beyond his years. We're in very good hands with him. May never be a superstar just because he's not a prime athlete but is going to be ROCK solid over the course of his career. I have a strong feeling he's going to be looked back upon very fondly, in the same way we look back on Will Thomas.

Grayer looks the part. Long, athletic wing. Should probably get to the line more than he does, but he's a freshman, and that will come. I have very little doubt that he'll be a 15 ppg guy and a rugged wing defender.

Abram....I'd bet he'll be a success, but it's less solid than the other two. A small forward (not a wing, an old school small forward) who can get hot from the outside is valuable, but I'll have to see it sustained a little bit better and see him flash a little bit more of a well rounded game before I'm completely sold.

3) Marquise Moore being the player Marquise Moore should be. I love what Paulsen is doing with him. I have little to add other than that I think he's being developed/used perfectly, and the results speak for themselves.

Overall, I give guarded approval. Teams that play a ton of freshmen and turnover prone bigs will look sloppy, but this team is REALLY sloppy. There needs to be significant improvement in year two (and hopefully in the second half of year one). That said, you can see what he's trying to do (well rounded players that play as a unit, and distribute the ball handling, scoring, and rebounding), and it looks like he's got some pieces in place.

Thoughts?

Herndon,

I love long and thoughtful posts like this--thanks!

I think the assists (and consequently the assists/turnover issue) is a function of our generally poor shooting % and that fact that we rely on Moore, and to a somewhat lesser extent Livingston, driving to the basket. So far we haven't found a consistent catch-and-shoot player despite some drive-and-kick opportunities presented by our guards. Hopefully that will come -- I'm guessing that next year's recruiting class has focused on those kinds of guys.

Turnovers clearly continue to be an issue, although in the St. Louis game I was surprised that we had 10 as it didn't seem that high (even though that's below our average). Maybe that's because of the (sometimes) bogus illegal pick calls in that game (those are turnovers, aren't they?).

Despite these chronic problems, it certainly seems that the program is on the right track. And given the amount of time these guys will be playing together, that familiarity with each other bodes well. It seems whenever we're on tv, the announcers do make a point of indicating that Paulsen can REALLY coach. Maybe that's what announcers do when they're covering new coaches of young, under .500 teams, but I choose to believe that they are being sincere.

Lots to look forward to.

 

[gmujim92]

My view might be skewed somewhat because we just played SLU, which is Charmin soft defensively, but I see a ton of progress given the fact that we've played a tough A-10 schedule so far.

vcu, Bona, SJU and Davidson are 4 of the top 6 or 7 teams in the league. And while the scoreboard says we lost 3 of those games by double digits, I thought we hung reasonably well for long stretches with all 4 teams. That is a very good sign considering our youth and thin bench.

As a confession, I watch a lot of A-10 basketball. I've seen several bottom-half teams just get overwhelmed from the opening tip -- it was obvious they didn't belong on the same court with the opponent -- but our guys have battled and done a good job (for the most part) of preventing games from getting away from them. We could've, and maybe even should've, beaten Davidson at their place.

It's pretty obvious that DP has significantly adapted his system to fit what our guys can do, which is one sign of an excellent coach. Even starting three freshmen, we already look way more organized offensively than we ever did under The Virus. When we have 3-4 guys capable of consistently knocking down wide-open jump shots, our assist totals will go way up and we're going to be very difficult to defend.

We also have the makings of a roster with parts that make sense, instead of a bunch of redundant 6-7 athletes with athleticism but limited skill.

We have two 4-year starters and future all-conference selections in Livingston and Grayer, so we don't need the rest of the young guys to be superstars. And I've seen enough from Abram, Murrell and even Dixon to feel comfortable that they can contribute something to a winning team (if they're content with that role) as they get stronger and more experienced over the next 3 years.

We haven't seen Relvao in action yet, but amazingly, our staff managed to come in extremely late to the game and sign a six-man class that appears to have not a single outright recruiting bust.

Unlike, say, ODU, which went for the quick fix by loading up on transfers and JUCOs, I'm really happy DP is building the program on 4-year players. It likely takes longer to get back to what the average fan considers competitive, but it's much more sustainable and has a higher ceiling over the long haul.

When you consider that we effectively lost three starters from last year in Porter, Jackson and Holloway, and replaced them with freshmen who were not exactly elite recruits, I don't know how anyone can be unimpressed by what we've seen so far.

 

[Five Two]

Turnovers clearly continue to be an issue, although in the St. Louis game I was surprised that we had 10 as it didn't seem that high (even though that's below our average). Maybe that's because of the (sometimes) bogus illegal pick calls in that game (those are turnovers, aren't they?).

yes, illegal pick calls are a turnover as are charges. a lane violation on a free throw attempt that results in the shooter losing the opportunity to take the free throw is also a turnover. failing to get a shot off before the shot clock is also considered a team turnover, although, there is some subjectivity when a player attempts a desperation 40 foot shot to beat the shot clock. some statisticians will call that as a missed shot with a defensive deadball rebound. others will simply call it a team turnover as to not penalize the player with a missed shot. sorry for the stat-geek response.

so while we may not throw passes out of bounds, there are other things our team does that count as a turnover.

 

[99 Patriot]

I'll play too.

First and foremost, culture and attitude is 1000% better than what we had. I often wonder whether DP would take this job again if he knew everything he was inheriting and the culture that had developed. These freshman are not just the new face of our team on the floor, they are off it as well, which puts a lot of pressure on them, but appears to be a challenge they are up for.

On the court, it's sort of what we expected. We don't force turnovers, gamble or play gimmicky defense. We play man-to-man, and hopefully with experience we will get really good at it. To date, we struggle with elite athletes and elite basketball players, something unfortunately for us the A-10 has a lot more of than the Patriot league did.

Offensively, I think DP is getting the most he can out of this bunch. His history shows he does not usually feature a low post back-to-the-basket big man, which certainly clogs up the lane and required adjustments. Mix in that we don't have any great shooters (thanks again Pat), and he's had to design sets that work for the talent we have. I think he's done a nice job, but also believe our offense will look a lot different next year. Turnovers need to be reduced, but the fact that our freshman ball handlers are not committing a ton of those gives me hope for the future.

Second half of the year I'd just like to see continued growth as a team. I'd also like to see us make the Patriot Center a difficult place to play again, no matter who the opponent. On a player level, I'd like to see whether Murrell and Abrams appear to be long term fits in the rotation (Danny too, but with a healthy frontcourt his minutes will be limited).

 

[gmujim92]

I often wonder whether DP would take this job again if he knew everything he was inheriting and the culture that had developed.

I wonder the same thing. It was a big bump in pay and conference prestige, but there's no way he could've possibly imagined how much of a dumpster fire he was inheriting.

Plus, he left behind a program built to dominate long-term in the PL.

Lucky for us that he said yes. Given how far everything had fallen on and off the court, we desperately needed a teacher/disciplinarian to come in and set things back on the right course.

 

[Petey Buckets]

Every time Shevon gets called for a travel for trying to moonwalk his way out of a double-team, that's also a turnover.

A lot of great points being made about patience and player development. I'll add that through 18 games, this team has had very little rotational consistency. First we had Patrick suspended for six games, then he came back and Paulsen tried to fit him into the rotation. Then Marko was suspended very close to the time Patrick left the team (I forget the exact timeline). So we were without Marko for a few games and had even less Senior leadership than usual. Shevon has also been less effective recently than he was to open the season, and a lot of people think it may be due to a foot injury.

Paulsen had a high enough degree of difficulty trying to fit five freshmen into the rotation, and all of this only exacerbated the problem. I know we're punting this season anyway, but I still have hopes that we can look a lot more competitive late in the season with a healthy Shevon and a settled rotation.

 

[GSII]

I'm just curious if DP will need to change up the D to throw off the other teams offensive flow. I see our D is solid but one demensional as has been his way at Bucknell too. I dont think we can stay in top 4 as a one demensional Defense. This isnt re this season, moreso his style throughout his career.

 

[gmujim92]

I'm just curious if DP will need to change up the D to throw off the other teams offensive flow. I see our D is solid but one demensional as has been his way at Bucknell too. I dont think we can stay in top 4 as a one demensional Defense. This isnt re this season, moreso his style throughout his career.

One dimensional or not, IMHO there is nothing wrong with our defensive philosophy -- we just don't have many guys who are very good on that end of the court right now.

 

[Herndon]

Every time Shevon gets called for a travel for trying to moonwalk his way out of a double-team, that's also a turnover.

A lot of great points being made about patience and player development. I'll add that through 18 games, this team has had very little rotational consistency. First we had Patrick suspended for six games, then he came back and Paulsen tried to fit him into the rotation. Then Marko was suspended very close to the time Patrick left the team (I forget the exact timeline). So we were without Marko for a few games and had even less Senior leadership than usual. Shevon has also been less effective recently than he was to open the season, and a lot of people think it may be due to a foot injury.

Paulsen had a high enough degree of difficulty trying to fit five freshmen into the rotation, and all of this only exacerbated the problem. I know we're punting this season anyway, but I still have hopes that we can look a lot more competitive late in the season with a healthy Shevon and a settled rotation.

You know, this is perfectly valid, and a point I didn't consider. Good call, Buckets.

 

[mkaufman1]

I have to say that I agree with the sentiments here. To be able to come in and heavily rely on a freshman rotation, and flawed upperclassmen and win the few games Mason has been able to is quite an achievement. At times, we have seen flashes of brilliance, whether its Abram pouring in 20+, Otis going coast to coast, or Grayer lighting it up. At other times, we've seen the same old, with Thompson not being able to pass, or a Jenkins travel. I promised myself I wouldn't do a full analysis until 50 games, and obviously we won't really see a corner turn until Year 3 (in my opinion). Its obvious Paulsen relies heavily on guard play, and as the guards play well, the team succeeds.

In addition, in regards to the culture change, I've noticed after every home game Otis, Marko, and Jaire (I think) go over to the band to exchange hugs with Doc Nix and wave to the crowd. Its a small thing but even after losing by 20, its a nice touch to say "Hey thanks for having our back thick and thin".

 

[GMUSig03]

Agree with all the comments so far. All things considered - inherited terrible team, lost entire freshman class, lost entire recruiting class, lost senior leading returning scorer and former All Met POY, most consistent player suspended for multiple games in middle of OOC schedule, had a couple months to sign SIX! guys from the scrap heap, starting 3 freshmen including PG - WOW!

We are 7-11?! This team by all rights should be a 3 or 4 win team at this point. Just ask yourself what Hewitt's record would be with this exact team and that gives you your answer of how amazing a job Coach P has done to get these guys where they are. Can't wait to see what he can do in a couple years.

 

[gmujim92]

Just ask yourself what Hewitt's record would be with this exact team and that gives you your answer of how amazing a job Coach P has done to get these guys where they are. Can't wait to see what he can do in a couple years.

It's kind of a trick question -- Hewitt would never have this team because he wouldn't have even bothered to recruit Otis, Murrell or Dixon.

Abram is Hewitt's kind of player, but the dumbass would probably have DeAndre playing the point.

 

[gmutom]

It's kind of a trick question -- Hewitt would never have this team because he wouldn't have even bothered to recruit Otis, Murrell or Dixon.

If we are playing hypotheticals, I would love to know what a superior coach like Paulsen would have done with Moore, Jackson, Gilbert, Holloway, Porter, Marko, Thompson and Jenkins, which I think we all agree was talented enough to be in the top four of the A10 this season.

Where I give Paulsen the most credit — and as others have already pointed out — is moving so quickly to change the culture. I think most of the defections came when players realized they would more accountable on and off the court. That obviously didn't fly with some of the guys who left in the offseason or quit this year. I think Paulsen has a much more in-your-face style than Hewitt or Coach L, but his players really seem to buy into it which is all that matters.

Paulsen realized early on that the culture had to change before the wins would come. I'm happy to see that culture and those wins coming even sooner than expected.

 

[MasonFanatic]

The craziest thing about us being 7-11 is that I feel like we could easily be 9-9 (Manhattan and Davidson).

No complaints, Coach Paulsen.

 

[GMUgemini]

If we are playing hypotheticals, I would love to know what a superior coach like Paulsen would have done with Moore, Jackson, Gilbert, Holloway, Porter, Marko, Thompson and Jenkins, which I think we all agree was talented enough to be in the top four of the A10 this season.

Where I give Paulsen the most credit — and as others have already pointed out — is moving so quickly to change the culture. I think most of the defections came when players realized they would more accountable on and off the court. That obviously didn't fly with some of the guys who left in the offseason or quit this year. I think Paulsen has a much more in-your-face style than Hewitt or Coach L, but his players really seem to buy into it which is all that matters.

Paulsen realized early on that the culture had to change before the wins would come. I'm happy to see that culture and those wins coming even sooner than expected.

I want to know what Paulsen would have done with Pearson, Morrison, DJ, Vaughns, Allen, Wright, Gray, Edwards, Williams, Arledge, and Bennett (the team Hewitt took over).

What I want to see going forward is for this team to communicate better on defense and to do something to make it harder for the opposing team to get the shots they want. We need to be dictating more often the shots we want them to take instead of the other way around (Paulsen's words after an earlier game this year).