Game 6: Manhattan College, Saturday, Nov 29th, 4 PM, NO TV

[phoenix-arizona]

Jollay,

Now you have me confused! While I've been thinking that couchcoach is too funny to be you ("ricky" is more your style), surely it's more likely to be Chankenstank rather than Phoenix?

Yea I am not clever enough to have more than one account.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

Jollay,

Now you have me confused! While I've been thinking that couchcoach is too funny to be you ("ricky" is more your style), surely it's more likely to be Chankenstank rather than Phoenix?

Oh I can be funny! Very funny! Funny funny funny!

I am pretty sure ricky is real and not me. I have a pm I received in fact that would prove that, but I am not going to share one of those.

Any admin can tell you via IPs have given up most of my aliases, mostly because I long ago reached email and password overload.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

If ricky is not real I wish the ricky that created her would step forward so I can give him kudos and buy them some beers.

 

[couchcoach]

If ricky is not real I wish the ricky that created her would step forward so I can give him kudos and buy them some beers.

hi friends. I wonder what time game tongith. I so sleepy I dont think i wake

 

[TweederGMU]

Goodguys 56
Slumdogs of Manhattan 60

 

[Five Two]

School named after a different borough than its really located: 68
School named after a man most think signed the Declaration of Independence, but didn't: 52

 

[DeepValue]

Watching Villanova play vcu makes me wish Mason wasn't playing vcu this year.

Edit: twice

 

[933127]

Watching Villanova play vcu makes me wish Mason wasn't playing vcu this year.

Edit: twice

Villanova is actually using the 4 out 1 in motion offense. So does Mason. Hmmm...so is it the offense or the coach that's the cause of Mason's poor performance. Maybe both?

 

[gmujim92]

Watching Villanova play vcu makes me wish Mason wasn't playing vcu this year.

Edit: twice

Nova had only 3 turnovers in the first half b/c Havoc doesn't bother teams that have good guard play ... in other words, not us.

 

[KAOriginal]

Absolute joy watching ESPN promote the vcu/Nova game complete with highlights, analysis, of HAVOC, their win over Tennessee, etc.

And even while being in the A10, we are a CAA bottom feeder.

 

[GMUgemini]

Villanova is actually using the 4 out 1 in motion offense. So does Mason. Hmmm...so is it the offense or the coach that's the cause of Mason's poor performance. Maybe both?

Oh, it's the coach. Villanova has also always been guard heavy (sometimes going 4 guards), so it makes a lot more sense for them to play that way than a team full of forwards.

Larranaga runs a version of Hewitt's defense at Miami, too, to much greater affect.

 

[psyclone]

Sagarin Predictor (same as rpiforecast, I think) essentially has the game even if you factor in the 3.75 home court advantage.

 

[psyclone]

Sagarin Predictor (same as rpiforecast, I think) essentially has the game even if you factor in the 3.75 home court advantage.

And looking further ahead, rpiforecast projects us to win 4 conference games and 7 games overall for the year. Pretty grim. In fact, the only future game we're listed as favorites is the home game against Fordham.

 

[wijg]

Sagarin Predictor (same as rpiforecast, I think) essentially has the game even if you factor in the 3.75 home court advantage.

Serious question: Does Sagarin factor in that we don't really seem to have a home court advantage any more? So, is it really even...

 

[wijg]

So your mention of Sagarin made me curious so I went to look at the rankings.

The bad news: We are 258 and Fordham is only 4 slots behind at 262. They have to be the happiest with our hiring of Hewitt...

The good news: Georgia Tech is at 91 with a record of 3 and 0. So, there is light at the end of the tunnel that it is possible to recover post-Hewitt

 

[psyclone]

Serious question: Does Sagarin factor in that we don't really seem to have a home court advantage any more? So, is it really even...

The 3.75 is a generic number that they provide that they advise adding to ANY home teams's "Predictor" score in order to correct for that. Although that generic number does vary periodically, they don't ever individualize it to specific teams that are playing at home. I'm presuming vegas odds-makers have a data-based way for estimating a specific team's home court "advantage" in setting the initial spread.

I'd imagine that if teams continually fail to beat the spread, either home or away, the Predictor score and ranking of that team will continue to drop.

 

[Vurbel]

And looking further ahead, rpiforecast projects us to win 4 conference games and 7 games overall for the year. Pretty grim. In fact, the only future game we're listed as favorites is the home game against Fordham.

Where are the 7 wins? Catawba should be an easy win, but then again I thought playing a 2-23 Cornell team would have been an easy win. Maybe they have us splitting with Fordham, Duquesne, St. Bona and Davidson. Then beating Catawba and Manhattan. That brings us to 7. I've given up on trying to figure all this out.

 

[psyclone]

Catawba is non Division 1 and wouldn't count toward the 7. Although rpiforecast has us as underdogs except for the Fordham home game, they base their season long projections on the statistical probability that a team will win some of the games where they are underdogs. More likely to happen where they are narrow underdogs where, loosely speaking, measurement error is larger than the number of points they are underdogs by. E.g. they are less than 5 pt underdogs to Manhattan, St. Joe's, St. Louis, LaSalle, and of course Fordham where they are 4 pt favorites.

Sort of like flipping a coin 10 times--one would project heads would come up 5 times but of course, sometimes it will come up more than 5 times. Random error.

 

[couchcoach]

Where are the 7 wins? Catawba should be an easy win, but then again I thought playing a 2-23 Cornell team would have been an easy win. Maybe they have us splitting with Fordham, Duquesne, St. Bona and Davidson. Then beating Catawba and Manhattan. That brings us to 7. I've given up on trying to figure all this out.

i look now davidson at ucf... i dont think we winonce with davidson

 

[couchcoach]

Catawba is non Division 1 and wouldn't count toward the 7. Although rpiforecast has us as underdogs except for the Fordham home game, they base their season long projections on the statistical probability that a team will win some of the games where they are underdogs. More likely to happen where they are narrow underdogs where, loosely speaking, measurement error is larger than the number of points they are underdogs by. E.g. they are less than 5 pt underdogs to Manhattan, St. Joe's, St. Louis, LaSalle, and of course Fordham where they are 4 pt favorites.

Sort of like flipping a coin 10 times--one would project heads would come up 5 times but of course, sometimes it will come up more than 5 times. Random error.

no error. sum of the probabilities from each permutation for a given final record.