Game 19: GMU (17-1 / 5-0) vs GW (12-6 / 3-2) on Monday, January 19, at 5:00 PM.

J

jruby

Starter
MasonSAE4 said:
Not to be "that guy" on a day made so great by Caputo eating shit for the 43943493267th time, but if Tony plays BOC I'm thinking he's at least flirting with the idea of being out of here after this year. That's about as "win now at the expense of later" move as you can make with the amount of guys who would potentially return. Now, maybe he thinks he loses him in the offseason regardless, but I still think play BOC for only half of the conference slate in a year in which we need the AQ is a pretty giant waste of eligibility.
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Why does everyone keep saying this? They don't need the AQ, the numbers are there. Go 9-3 and undefeated at home the rest of the way and they are squarely on the bubble. Go 10-2 and get in! That's not an AQ needed. Run the scenarios, with modern tech there's no excuse not to. I mean these boards also said they would go 7-9 after a bad half of one game so who knows..... Whatever I'm going to ride the wave, and keep believing they will go as far as Tony takes em!
 
G

GMU79

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jruby said:
Why does everyone keep saying this? They don't need the AQ, the numbers are there. Go 9-3 and undefeated at home the rest of the way and they are squarely on the bubble. Go 10-2 and get in! That's not an AQ needed. Run the scenarios, with modern tech there's no excuse not to. I mean these boards also said they would go 7-9 after a bad half of one game so who knows..... Whatever I'm going to ride the wave, and keep believing they will go as far as Tony takes em!
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Yes! I'm tired of all the need the AQ talk. Win and we're in.
 
MasonSAE4

MasonSAE4

All-American
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jruby said:
Why does everyone keep saying this? They don't need the AQ, the numbers are there. Go 9-3 and undefeated at home the rest of the way and they are squarely on the bubble. Go 10-2 and get in! That's not an AQ needed. Run the scenarios, with modern tech there's no excuse not to. I mean these boards also said they would go 7-9 after a bad half of one game so who knows..... Whatever I'm going to ride the wave, and keep believing they will go as far as Tony takes em!
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The NCAA nuked RPI to institute a metric specifically designed to get more P5 teams in. “The bubble” for whatever it’s worth, now only exists if you are a middling P5 school. If you’re a mid-major, you are either securely in going into Selection Sunday or you are out. If you give the NCAA a single reason to exclude you as a mid-major, they will. Our SoS will be their out. We are 18-1 and not particularly close to being ranked. Ten years ago I’d agree with you, but in today’s day and age, no.

Perhaps running the table in the regular season and losing to SLU in the final would get us in. But it’s a razor fine margin.
 
E

Earl the Squirrel

Starter
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GMU1983 said:
Do we have Caputos postgame I want to hear him whine!
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Yeah, I wanted to hear the Caputo presser for the same reason. The way he managed the last 30 seconds of the game was head scratching. The kind of end-of-game decision making you would expect from a parent who never played the game and doesn't understand the rules, but has been pressed into the role of head coach of a youth basketball team.

I remember a Washington Post article from ~15 years ago about Caputo as the loyal Coach L footsoldier. My recollection was the tenor and implication of the article was Caputo was a boy genious and maybe the key to coach L's success. Seems laughable now.

In Caputo's defense he plays in a shitty arena and GW is a highly sought after school and expensive. They don't need the basketball team to do well to goose applications. In hindsight it's a strange landing spot for him. Makes me wonder if he didn't interview well at other openings.

Thank god we got CTS instead of Caputo.

Tony- please stay here at least two more years. The P5 conferences will pay you even more if you keep winning here. Don't take the first offer that comes your way, like Kimmie. Build a program over 4-5 years and the P5 will knock your door down with a $6 million a year offer. Or, better yet, stay for 5-6 years, with a couple of surprising runs in the NCAA and get a $10M bag.
 
J

jruby

Starter
MasonSAE4 said:
The NCAA nuked RPI to institute a metric specifically designed to get more P5 teams in. “The bubble” for whatever it’s worth, now only exists if you are a middling P5 school. If you’re a mid-major, you are either securely in going into Selection Sunday or you are out. If you give the NCAA a single reason to exclude you as a mid-major, they will. Our SoS will be their out. We are 18-1 and not particularly close to being ranked. Ten years ago I’d agree with you, but in today’s day and age, no.

Perhaps running the table in the regular season and losing to SLU in the final would get us in. But it’s a razor fine margin.
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No one has used RPI. Mason is 34 in the AP and win on Saturday and they will likely pick up another 20-30 votes moving inside the top 30 I wouldn't say that's 'no where close' Again as i've said run the actual scenarios. Being ranked also doesn't really matter right now. The path is still the exact same that has been said over and over again. Nothing has changed. Go 15-3 and they are on the bubble meaning it depends what happens with mid ACC and Sec ain't that good this year and never were and they know they made a mistake last year. Tournament was actually a disaster. Go 16-2 with road loses to GW and vcu they are in! The scenarios are real! It's easier than ever to run them in 2 seconds. There isn't even any guessing needed. Welcome to the power of modern tech. You can can keep debating it all you want but theres no world where a 28-3 first place A10 team gets left out. That's not an AQ, you can say they won't win those games but that's a different argument. Why not just run the scenarios? Then you can see what needs to happen and what loses cause them to fall out. I've run and posted them. Anyway if you think they will lose fine, just say they aren't winning at vcu or GW and will lose at home to Dayton and SLU then yeah they are outside looking in. That's not the same argument though! Hell some sites now even have vcu as first 8 out with Mason and St louis in.
 
P

pm57WOW

Four-star Recruit
Face it, the powers that be at the NCAA don't want Mason in the tournament until they squeeze every last penny out of the now almost exhausted "twenty year old Final Four angle" to prop-up the dying NIT. This is a business
 
N

NewPatriot

Starter
jruby said:
No one has used RPI. Mason is 34 in the AP and win on Saturday and they will likely pick up another 20-30 votes moving inside the top 30 I wouldn't say that's 'no where close' Again as i've said run the actual scenarios. Being ranked also doesn't really matter right now. The path is still the exact same that has been said over and over again. Nothing has changed. Go 15-3 and they are on the bubble meaning it depends what happens with mid ACC and Sec ain't that good this year and never were and they know they made a mistake last year. Tournament was actually a disaster. Go 16-2 with road loses to GW and vcu they are in! The scenarios are real! It's easier than ever to run them in 2 seconds. There isn't even any guessing needed. Welcome to the power of modern tech. You can can keep debating it all you want but theres no world where a 28-3 first place A10 team gets left out. That's not an AQ, you can say they won't win those games but that's a different argument. Why not just run the scenarios? Then you can see what needs to happen and what loses cause them to fall out. I've run and posted them. Anyway if you think they will lose fine, just say they aren't winning at vcu or GW and will lose at home to Dayton and SLU then yeah they are outside looking in. That's not the same argument though! Hell some sites now even have vcu as first 8 out with Mason and St louis in.
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Are you confusing terminology?

AQ is the auto bid. You have to win the conference tournament... that's it...your best chance to win the conference tournament is be a top 4 seed and get the double bye first. They can do that.

At large means selection committee selects you.

I think you mean at large bid.

We get it. You are looking at Bart torvik and Warren Nolan. The problem is NCAA doesn't use them and they are frequently wrong in their predictions. They don't take into account the human element that players are not robots.

Is the opportunity there? sure...but fact is Mason 2-1 Q1/Q2 games with maybe 2 opportunities(@vcu and SLU) left
With NO WINS.


No team has ever gotten an at large with out a Q1 win.


They have to beat both for at large consideration.

Otherwise they have to win the conference tournament for the auto bid.
 
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G

GMU79

Hall of Famer
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Earl the Squirrel said:
Yeah, I wanted to hear the Caputo presser for the same reason. The way he managed the last 30 seconds of the game was head scratching. The kind of end-of-game decision making you would expect from a parent who never played the game and doesn't understand the rules, but has been pressed into the role of head coach of a youth basketball team.

I remember a Washington Post article from ~15 years ago about Caputo as the loyal Coach L footsoldier. My recollection was the tenor and implication of the article was Caputo was a boy genious and maybe the key to coach L's success. Seems laughable now.

In Caputo's defense he plays in a shitty arena and GW is a highly sought after school and expensive. They don't need the basketball team to do well to goose applications. In hindsight it's a strange landing spot for him. Makes me wonder if he didn't interview well at other openings.

Thank god we got CTS instead of Caputo.

Tony- please stay here at least two more years. The P5 conferences will pay you even more if you keep winning here. Don't take the first offer that comes your way, like Kimmie. Build a program over 4-5 years and the P5 will knock your door down with a $6 million a year offer. Or, better yet, stay for 5-6 years, with a couple of surprising runs in the NCAA and get a $10M bag.
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Hope I'm wrong, but I don't believe Tony will bolt at the first chance. I'm thinking 2-4 more years.
 
S

Sport31

Specialist
Anomaly of quad system, we beat GW(#77) at home but its quad 3 win if we beat Rhody(#112) away on Sat it will be a quad2 win. 35 place difference but it emphasizes importance of a road win. Edit: RI lost this weekend and a re now#139 now a quad 3 game unless they win this week and move up 4 spots( 76-135 away is quad 2). Root for RI v Richmond on wednesday.
 
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J

jruby

Starter
NewPatriot said:
Are you confusing terminology?

AQ is the auto bid. You have to win the conference tournament... that's it...your best chance to win the conference tournament is be a top 4 seed and get the double bye first. They can do that.

At large means selection committee selects you.

I think you mean at large bid.

We get it. You are looking at Bart torvik and Warren Nolan. The problem is NCAA doesn't use them and they are frequently wrong in their predictions. They don't take into account the human element that players are not robots.

Is the opportunity there? sure...but fact is Mason 2-1 Q1/Q2 games with maybe 2 opportunities(@vcu and SLU) left
With NO WINS.


No team has ever gotten an at large with out a Q1 win.


They have to beat both for at large consideration.

Otherwise they have to win the conference tournament for the auto bid.
Click to expand...
No, look I get that you have your opinion. I said use the tools out there plug in the games and it will show you the numbers. You don't have to guess anymore. I actually did not use Kenpom or Bark Torvik at all but i'm sure they have their own algorithms the main difference now is everyone has access to those in real time. You can adjust or alter the outcomes and say if A. Happens the numbers will be this. If B. happens this will be the numbers etc etc. I'm not saying it will happen or won't which has constantly been my message. I'm simply saying the path that was presented from the get go is still very much alive. That path does include going undefeated at home which naturally means beating Dayton and St. Louis at home. So while that is anything but a sure thing I think the path is still exactly what it was 2 months ago. Don't lose quad 4 games on the road. Go undefeated at home and stack wins and the numbers will work themselves out to a way that gets them in.

The optics of what you are speaking of, Leaving a champion or co-champion in said situation out from the A10 with a 28-3 record would not only be bad for Mason it would be bad for anyone not in the ACC SEC or BIG10. There's going to leave 60-70% of college basketball furious.

I don't think they can do that as much as people want to scream about a power 5 bias which yes is real. The one advantage this year is that the SEC just doesn't have the metrics this year. Sec isn't looking so hot right now either. So I get it, I really do. I just think at the end of the day the path and metrics hold strong enough. I also don't think your opinion is crazy and 100% get the resentment frustration and concern regarding will it be good enough? One main factor from last year is Mason had some horrible losses to start the year. There was no hiding those. The A10 as a whole had a better OFC and is just in better shape overall.
 
G

GMU79

Hall of Famer
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GIVING DAY 2023
jruby said:
No, look I get that you have your opinion. I said use the tools out there plug in the games and it will show you the numbers. You don't have to guess anymore. I actually did not use Kenpom or Bark Torvik at all but i'm sure they have their own algorithms the main difference now is everyone has access to those in real time. You can adjust or alter the outcomes and say if A. Happens the numbers will be this. If B. happens this will be the numbers etc etc. I'm not saying it will happen or won't which has constantly been my message. I'm simply saying the path that was presented from the get go is still very much alive. That path does include going undefeated at home which naturally means beating Dayton and St. Louis at home. So while that is anything but a sure thing I think the path is still exactly what it was 2 months ago. Don't lose quad 4 games on the road. Go undefeated at home and stack wins and the numbers will work themselves out to a way that gets them in.

The optics of what you are speaking of, Leaving a champion or co-champion in said situation out from the A10 with a 28-3 record would not only be bad for Mason it would be bad for anyone not in the ACC SEC or BIG10. There's going to leave 60-70% of college basketball furious.

I don't think they can do that as much as people want to scream about a power 5 bias which yes is real. The one advantage this year is that the SEC just doesn't have the metrics this year. Sec isn't looking so hot right now either. So I get it, I really do. I just think at the end of the day the path and metrics hold strong enough. I also don't think your opinion is crazy and 100% get the resentment frustration and concern regarding will it be good enough? One main factor from last year is Mason had some horrible losses to start the year. There was no hiding those. The A10 as a whole had a better OFC and is just in better shape overall.
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Preach!
 
N

NewPatriot

Starter
jruby said:
Don't lose quad 4 games on the road.
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I read and understood everything you just said but the statement which you posted above is not a done deal.

Mason is 18-1 but they almost lost to a Loyola team with 5 rotational players out and a 5-9 walk on point guard in the starting lineup and GW team with 2 players out and the worst end of game coach in the A10.

No game going forward is a gimme..let's just worry about URI first
 
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