Women's bubble watch/rooting guide

[Verdad]

UPDATED 3/4
Women have amazingly secured the 4 seed and will be playing La Salle/UMass/Duquesne on Friday at 1:30pm.

Loss to vcu took us off the list of next four out, but we still could theoretically have a shot if we lose in the finals of the A10 tournament.

Remaining Mason Games:
A10 quarterfinals 3/8 v TBD

Root against projected 10-12 seeds/bubble teams for rest of regular season to weaken their resumes - teams projected in front of us are in bold, meaning they are likelist competition for at large spot (remaining games in chronological order)

3/6 Games
MTSU ( Liberty 3/6, vs La Tech 3/9)
Toledo (E Mich 3/6, Kent St 3/9)
Ball St (Kent St. 3/6, Buffalo 3/9)

3/7 Games:
Belmont (Bradley 3/7, Illinois St 3/9)
Drake (Evansville 3/7, Indiana St. 3/9)
Stony Brook (Hampton 3/7, W&M 3/9)
Fairfield (St. Peters 3/7, Rider 3/9)

3/9 Games:
Princeton (Penn 3/9)
Columbia (Cornell 3/9)
Grand Canyon (CA Baptist 3/9)

Regular Season Finished
Michigan
Penn State
Villanova
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
Arkansas
Auburn
Maryland
Marshall
Washington State
Arizona
Washington
South Dakota State
FGCU
Kansas
Marquette
Green Bay
Cleveland State
Iowa State
Richmond (projected #12 seed)
St Joe’s (listed on next four out)
vcu

Women’s conference tournaments with bubble impact (desired victor):
Horizon (Green Bay) 5th to 12th
Sun Belt (Marshall) 5th to 11th
ACC 6th to 10th
Big Ten 6th to 10th
Pac 12 6th to 10th
SEC 6th to 10th
Big 12 7th to 12th
West Coast (Gonzaga) 7th to 12th
ASUN (FGCU) 8th to 16th
Big East 8th to 12th
Summit (SDSU) 8th to 12th
Mountain West (UNLV) 11th to 17th
CUSA (MTSU) 12th to 16th
MAAC (Fairfield) 12th to 16th
CAA (Stony Brook) 13th to 17th
MAC (Toledo) 13th to 16th
WAC (Grand Canyon) 13th to 16th
Missouri Valley (Drake) 14th to 17th
Ivy (Princeton) 15th to 16th

All others are 1 bid leagues no matter what.

ESPN Bracketology as of 3/4 update (Mason 6th team out):

 

[MasonFanatic]

The Ivy League is going to be interesting, Columbia is the top seed and gets to host the tournament, but Princeton is an at-large caliber team. We want Princeton to pull the upset and win the Ivy tournament.

 

[Verdad]

The Ivy League is going to be interesting, Columbia is the top seed and gets to host the tournament, but Princeton is an at-large caliber team. We want Princeton to pull the upset and win the Ivy tournament.

Princeton and Columbia are both 10-1 and have split their conference games, with 3 games to go - has the tournament location already been decided?

Edit - answered my own question - Columbia is hosting the mens and women's tournament

 

[MasonFanatic]

Princeton and Columbia are both 10-1 and have split their conference games, with 3 games to go - has the tournament location already been decided?

Edit - answered my own question - Columbia is hosting the mens and women's tournament

I guess I misunderstood the information slightly.

 

[Verdad]

UPDATED 2/29
With only 2 or 3 games left for most teams, it seems clear we not only need to TCB, but will probably need some help too. Idea behind this thread is to see what teams we are competing with for at large spots and hoping they weaken their resumes through end of regular season. Then we'll turn our attention to the conference tournaments where we will want 1) conferences with multiple bids to have the below teams lost early, and 2) conferences with only 1 at large worthy team to have that 1 team win the tournament and prevent a bid from being stolen.

Remaining Mason Games:
@ vcu 3/2

Root against projected 10-12 seeds/bubble teams for rest of regular season to weaken their resumes - teams projected in front of us are in bold, meaning they are likelist competition for at large spot (remaining games in chronological order)
2/29 Games:
Texas A&M (@ Tenn 2/29, Alabama 3/3)
Vanderbilt (@ Mizz 2/29, UGA 3/3)
Washington State (@ #18 Utah 2/29, #13 Colorado 3/2)
Arizona (v #7 USC 2/29, #8 UCLA 3/2)
Washington (@ #13 Colorado 2/29, #18 Utah 3/2)
Arkansas (v #1 USC east 2/29, Ole Miss 3/3)
South Dakota State (v UND 2/29, NDSU 3/2)
FGCU (v UNF 2/29, v Jax 3/2)
Drake (v UIC 2/29, Valpo 3/2, Evansville 3/7, Indiana St. 3/9)
Grand Canyon (@UT RGV 2/29, SF Austin 3/2, CA Baptist 3/9)
Fairfield (Quinnipiac 2/29, Manhattan 3/2, St. Peters 3/7, Rider 3/9)
Auburn (vs Miss St. 2/29, UF 3/3)
Maryland (vs Wisconsin 2/29, #14 Indiana 3/3)

3/1 Games:
Belmont (v Indiana St 3/1, Evansville 3/3, Bradley 3/7, Illinois St 3/9)
Princeton (v Harvard 3/1, Dartmouth 3/2, Penn 3/9)
Columbia (@ Brown 3/1, Yale 3/2, Cornell 3/9)
Stony Brook (@ Drexel 3/1, NCA&T 3/3, Hampton 3/7, W&M 3/9)
Marshall (GSU 3/1)

3/2 Games:
Kansas ( #20 Oklahoma 3/2)
Marquette (Butler 3/2)
Green Bay (Milwauke 3/2)
Cleveland State (N Kent. 3/2)
Iowa State (Cincy 3/2)
MTSU (v Sam Houston 3/2, @ Liberty 3/6, vs La Tech 3/9)
Toledo (W Mich 3/2, E Mich 3/6, Kent St 3/9)
Ball St (E Mich. 3/2, Kent St. 3/6, Buffalo 3/9)
Richmond (SBU 3/2) (projected #12 seed)
St Joe’s (Duquesne 3/2) (no longer listed on 1st/next four out after loss to Fordham)
vcu (MASON 3/2)

3/3 Games:
Michigan (Purdue 3/3)
Penn State (Minn 3/3)
Villanova (DePaul 3/3)

Women’s conference tournaments with bubble impact (desired victor):
Horizon (Green Bay) 5th to 12th
Sun Belt (Marshall) 5th to 11th
ACC 6th to 10th
Big Ten 6th to 10th
Pac 12 6th to 10th
SEC 6th to 10th
Big 12 7th to 12th
West Coast (Gonzaga) 7th to 12th
ASUN (FGCU) 8th to 16th
Big East 8th to 12th
Summit (SDSU) 8th to 12th
Mountain West (UNLV) 11th to 17th
CUSA (MTSU) 12th to 16th
MAAC (Fairfield) 12th to 16th
CAA (Stony Brook) 13th to 17th
MAC (Toledo) 13th to 16th
WAC (Grand Canyon) 13th to 16th
Missouri Valley (Drake) 14th to 17th
Ivy (Princeton) 15th to 16th

All others are 1 bid leagues no matter what.

ESPN Bracketology as of 12/29 update:
See attachment to this post

 

[Verdad]

UPDATED 3/1
With only 2 or 3 games left for most teams, it seems clear we not only need to TCB, but will probably need some help too. Idea behind this thread is to see what teams we are competing with for at large spots and hoping they weaken their resumes through end of regular season. Then we'll turn our attention to the conference tournaments where we will want 1) conferences with multiple bids to have the below teams lost early, and 2) conferences with only 1 at large worthy team to have that 1 team win the tournament and prevent a bid from being stolen.

Remaining Mason Games:
@ vcu 3/2

Root against projected 10-12 seeds/bubble teams for rest of regular season to weaken their resumes - teams projected in front of us are in bold, meaning they are likelist competition for at large spot (remaining games in chronological order)

3/1 Games:
Belmont (v Indiana St 3/1, Evansville 3/3, Bradley 3/7, Illinois St 3/9)
Princeton (v Harvard 3/1, Dartmouth 3/2, Penn 3/9)
Columbia (@ Brown 3/1, Yale 3/2, Cornell 3/9)
Stony Brook (@ Drexel 3/1, NCA&T 3/3, Hampton 3/7, W&M 3/9)
Marshall (GSU 3/1)

3/2 Games:
Washington State (#13 Colorado 3/2)
Arizona (#8 UCLA 3/2)
Washington (#18 Utah 3/2)
South Dakota State (NDSU 3/2)
FGCU (Jax 3/2)
Drake (Valpo 3/2, Evansville 3/7, Indiana St. 3/9)
Grand Canyon (SF Austin 3/2, CA Baptist 3/9)
Fairfield (Manhattan 3/2, St. Peters 3/7, Rider 3/9)
Kansas ( #20 Oklahoma 3/2)
Marquette (Butler 3/2)
Green Bay (Milwauke 3/2)
Cleveland State (N Kent. 3/2)
Iowa State (Cincy 3/2)
MTSU (v Sam Houston 3/2, @ Liberty 3/6, vs La Tech 3/9)
Toledo (W Mich 3/2, E Mich 3/6, Kent St 3/9)
Ball St (E Mich. 3/2, Kent St. 3/6, Buffalo 3/9)
Richmond (SBU 3/2) (projected #12 seed)
St Joe’s (Duquesne 3/2) (no longer listed on 1st/next four out after loss to Fordham)
vcu (MASON 3/2)

3/3 Games:
Michigan (Purdue 3/3)
Penn State (Minn 3/3)
Villanova (DePaul 3/3)
Texas A&M (Alabama 3/3)
Vanderbilt (UGA 3/3)
Arkansas (Ole Miss 3/3)
Auburn ( UF 3/3)
Maryland (#14 Indiana 3/3)



Women’s conference tournaments with bubble impact (desired victor):
Horizon (Green Bay) 5th to 12th
Sun Belt (Marshall) 5th to 11th
ACC 6th to 10th
Big Ten 6th to 10th
Pac 12 6th to 10th
SEC 6th to 10th
Big 12 7th to 12th
West Coast (Gonzaga) 7th to 12th
ASUN (FGCU) 8th to 16th
Big East 8th to 12th
Summit (SDSU) 8th to 12th
Mountain West (UNLV) 11th to 17th
CUSA (MTSU) 12th to 16th
MAAC (Fairfield) 12th to 16th
CAA (Stony Brook) 13th to 17th
MAC (Toledo) 13th to 16th
WAC (Grand Canyon) 13th to 16th
Missouri Valley (Drake) 14th to 17th
Ivy (Princeton) 15th to 16th

All others are 1 bid leagues no matter what.

ESPN Bracketology as of 3/1 update (Mason 6th team out):
View attachment 2151

Updated

 

[Verdad]

UPDATED 3/4
Women have amazingly secured the 4 seed and will be playing La Salle/UMass/Duquesne on Friday at 1:30pm.

Loss to vcu took us off the list of next four out, but we still could theoretically have a shot if we lose in the finals of the A10 tournament.

Remaining Mason Games:
A10 quarterfinals 3/8 v TBD

Root against projected 10-12 seeds/bubble teams for rest of regular season to weaken their resumes - teams projected in front of us are in bold, meaning they are likelist competition for at large spot (remaining games in chronological order)

3/6 Games
MTSU ( Liberty 3/6, vs La Tech 3/9)
Toledo (E Mich 3/6, Kent St 3/9)
Ball St (Kent St. 3/6, Buffalo 3/9)

3/7 Games:
Belmont (Bradley 3/7, Illinois St 3/9)
Drake (Evansville 3/7, Indiana St. 3/9)
Stony Brook (Hampton 3/7, W&M 3/9)
Fairfield (St. Peters 3/7, Rider 3/9)

3/9 Games:
Princeton (Penn 3/9)
Columbia (Cornell 3/9)
Grand Canyon (CA Baptist 3/9)

Regular Season Finished
Michigan
Penn State
Villanova
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
Arkansas
Auburn
Maryland
Marshall
Washington State
Arizona
Washington
South Dakota State
FGCU
Kansas
Marquette
Green Bay
Cleveland State
Iowa State
Richmond (projected #12 seed)
St Joe’s (listed on next four out)
vcu

Women’s conference tournaments with bubble impact (desired victor):
Horizon (Green Bay) 5th to 12th
Sun Belt (Marshall) 5th to 11th
ACC 6th to 10th
Big Ten 6th to 10th
Pac 12 6th to 10th
SEC 6th to 10th
Big 12 7th to 12th
West Coast (Gonzaga) 7th to 12th
ASUN (FGCU) 8th to 16th
Big East 8th to 12th
Summit (SDSU) 8th to 12th
Mountain West (UNLV) 11th to 17th
CUSA (MTSU) 12th to 16th
MAAC (Fairfield) 12th to 16th
CAA (Stony Brook) 13th to 17th
MAC (Toledo) 13th to 16th
WAC (Grand Canyon) 13th to 16th
Missouri Valley (Drake) 14th to 17th
Ivy (Princeton) 15th to 16th

All others are 1 bid leagues no matter what.

ESPN Bracketology as of 3/4 update (Mason 6th team out):

View attachment 2159

updated 3/4

 

[GMU79]

updated 3/4

Yeah, the vcu loss stinks, but let's go on a run ladies, and as Bum Phillips once said "kick the door down." (Cleaned up just a bit. )

 

[psyclone]

Women's Bubble Watch: Which teams are NCAA tournament locks, and who has work to do?

Champ Week is here. Some teams know they're headed to the NCAA tournament. The rest have one last chance to bolster a resume and reach March Madness.

www.espn.com

bottom of article:

Should be in: Richmond

Work to do: St. Joes, Mason, vcu

Followed by big table of various teams' record, BPI, SOS, etc.

 

[GMUYoda]

"Can the A-10 get two NCAA tournament bids? It was a talking point at the beginning of January and it remains the A-10's biggest question at the end of the regular season. But the answer isn't as promising now as it was two months ago. Some attrition among the top teams in the last week -- George Mason beat Richmond, vcu beat George Mason and Saint Joseph's, and Saint Joseph's lost to Fordham -- might have made the league race more exciting, but it hurt the résumés of the NCAA tournament contenders. Without a top-50 NET team in the A-10, the chances for multiple bids look small. Richmond's at-large credentials are the best, so the best-case scenario to get multiple teams in the NCAA bracket would be the Spiders losing in the A-10 tournament title game. They could possibly squeak in as one of the last teams in, giving the A-10 two bids."

Champ Week cheat sheet: The teams about to make the most noise in March Madness

We could be in for one of the most impactful Champ Weeks. These are the teams making it happen and expected to make noise in the NCAA tournament.

www.espn.com