Tuesday in Brooklyn or bust
- Thread starter Verdad
- Start date
- Thread Starter
- #3
Es la verdad
Realistically GW is not going to stay anywhere near the conversation for top 4 as league play progresses -- so we've really just got to keep pace and steal a win at Duquesne (which will not be busy), and hope that the Bonnies fall off. Feel like we generally match up well against Richmond and think we'll be well positioned to take a game down there if we are healthy.As we are a chunk of the way through the conference schedule, good time to start monitoring where we are in the stands and who we need to lose/win. We've really put ourselves in a whole with losses to teams that we do not have another game with - SLU and SBU. We currently have a win over Richmond (and remaining road game) and a loss to GW (also with a remaining road game). Sole games against vcu, Duquesne and Dayton are on the road - but still an opportunity to get the tiebreakers.
Personally, unless we actually get into a position to challenge them for a seed, I'm rooting for Dayton in all games, and SLU in all games except vs Dayton - Dayton still has the possibility of earning an at large and SLU is best chance for them to get some quality wins. Then there would be a chance of two bids if Dayton loses in finals.
Based on standings as of 1/17/23, looks like 4 seed is by far most likely chance with SLU, Dayton and vcu separating themselves a little (and likely have tiebreakers over us). So, this post will be updated periodically with our realistic goal (get 4 seed) and where things currently stand.
At 3-3, we are a half game back of 4 teams tied for the 4 seed at 3-2: Richmond, Duquesne, SBU and GW
We also have a ton of teams nipping at our heals, so we will want for them to strategically lose as well (unless they are playing vcu).
Current Standings with tiers:
Top 3:
vcu 4-1
Dayton 4-1
SLU 4-1
Battle for 4th:
Duquesne 3-2
Richmond 3-2
GW 3-2
SBU 3-2
Doing our own thing:
MASON 3-3
Nipping at heels:
Fordham 2-3
UMass 2-3
La Salle 2-3
URI 2-3
PIG status (bottom 6 teams):
Davidson 2-4
Saint Joe's 2-4
Loyola 0-5
Link to A-10 tournament bracket
Upcoming games of importance with team to root for in bold:
1/17
URI at Richmond
Davidson at Dayton
UMASS at vcu (UMass would be knocked a full game behind us though with a loss)
1/18
Duquesne at SBU (we can still win @ Duquesne to get tiebreaker)
HUGE remaining games for us:
At Richmond - can clinch tiebreaker
At GWU - can eliminate their head to head tiebreaker
EVERY ROAD GAME
Remaining schedule for us (with Ken Pom opponent ranks and our chances of winning):
Sat Jan 21 212 Rhode Island W, 67-66 66 55% Away × Wed Jan 25 93 vcu L, 70-65 68 31% Away × 
Sun Jan 29 206 Saint Joseph's W, 74-66 69 77% Home × Wed Feb 1 149 Massachusetts W, 73-68 70 68% Home × Sat Feb 4 237 Loyola Chicago W, 69-66 65 61% Away × Wed Feb 8 104 Duquesne L, 73-69 66 34% Away × Sat Feb 11 212 Rhode Island W, 71-63 66 77% Home × Wed Feb 15 187 George Washington W, 74-73 68 51% Away × Sat Feb 18 265 La Salle W, 74-63 67 85% Home × Sat Feb 25 50 Dayton L, 67-58 63 20% Away × 
Wed Mar 1 196 Fordham W, 72-65 68 75% Home × Sat Mar 4 102 Richmond L, 67-62 64 34% Away ×
Yeah, top 4 or not, I just cannot pull for vcu. Period.As we are a chunk of the way through the conference schedule, good time to start monitoring where we are in the stands and who we need to lose/win. We've really put ourselves in a whole with losses to teams that we do not have another game with - SLU and SBU. We currently have a win over Richmond (and remaining road game) and a loss to GW (also with a remaining road game). Sole games against vcu, Duquesne and Dayton are on the road - but still an opportunity to get the tiebreakers.
Personally, unless we actually get into a position to challenge them for a seed, I'm rooting for Dayton in all games, and SLU in all games except vs Dayton - Dayton still has the possibility of earning an at large and SLU is best chance for them to get some quality wins. Then there would be a chance of two bids if Dayton loses in finals.
Based on standings as of 1/17/23, looks like 4 seed is by far most likely chance with SLU, Dayton and vcu separating themselves a little (and likely have tiebreakers over us). So, this post will be updated periodically with our realistic goal (get 4 seed) and where things currently stand.
At 3-3, we are a half game back of 4 teams tied for the 4 seed at 3-2: Richmond, Duquesne, SBU and GW
We also have a ton of teams nipping at our heals, so we will want for them to strategically lose as well (unless they are playing vcu).
Current Standings with tiers:
Top 3:
vcu 4-1
Dayton 4-1
SLU 4-1
Battle for 4th:
Duquesne 3-2
Richmond 3-2
GW 3-2
SBU 3-2
Doing our own thing:
MASON 3-3
Nipping at heels:
Fordham 2-3
UMass 2-3
La Salle 2-3
URI 2-3
PIG status (bottom 6 teams):
Davidson 2-4
Saint Joe's 2-4
Loyola 0-5
Link to A-10 tournament bracket
Upcoming games of importance with team to root for in bold:
1/17
URI at Richmond
Davidson at Dayton
UMASS at vcu (UMass would be knocked a full game behind us though with a loss)
1/18
Duquesne at SBU (we can still win @ Duquesne to get tiebreaker)
HUGE remaining games for us:
At Richmond - can clinch tiebreaker
At GWU - can eliminate their head to head tiebreaker
EVERY ROAD GAME
Remaining schedule for us (with Ken Pom opponent ranks and our chances of winning):
Sat Jan 21 212 Rhode Island W, 67-66 66 55% Away × Wed Jan 25 93 vcu L, 70-65 68 31% Away × Sun Jan 29 206 Saint Joseph's W, 74-66 69 77% Home × Wed Feb 1 149 Massachusetts W, 73-68 70 68% Home × Sat Feb 4 237 Loyola Chicago W, 69-66 65 61% Away × Wed Feb 8 104 Duquesne L, 73-69 66 34% Away × Sat Feb 11 212 Rhode Island W, 71-63 66 77% Home × Wed Feb 15 187 George Washington W, 74-73 68 51% Away × Sat Feb 18 265 La Salle W, 74-63 67 85% Home × Sat Feb 25 50 Dayton L, 67-58 63 20% Away × Wed Mar 1 196 Fordham W, 72-65 68 75% Home × Sat Mar 4 102 Richmond L, 67-62 64 34% Away ×
Since the A10 went to an 18 game league schedule here are the records necessary to finish 4th starting with last year. Covid screwed up the last 2 seasons but basically 12-6 or 13-5 is needed.
12-5
7-4
12-6
12-6
10-8
13-5
13-5
12-6
Best case scenario I have us finishing 10-8. That may be a stretch. Top 4 is out of my hopes at this point. Prove me wrong Mason!
12-5
7-4
12-6
12-6
10-8
13-5
13-5
12-6
Best case scenario I have us finishing 10-8. That may be a stretch. Top 4 is out of my hopes at this point. Prove me wrong Mason!
Thanks for this very much! Looking at the bracket if we don't finish top 4 I just hope we can make 5, 6, or 7. 6 or 7 on paper (without knowing who the 2 and 3 are) looks like the best path to advance. Finish 8th or worse and we're screwed.As we are a chunk of the way through the conference schedule, good time to start monitoring where we are in the stands and who we need to lose/win. We've really put ourselves in a whole with losses to teams that we do not have another game with - SLU and SBU. We currently have a win over Richmond (and remaining road game) and a loss to GW (also with a remaining road game). Sole games against vcu, Duquesne and Dayton are on the road - but still an opportunity to get the tiebreakers.
Personally, unless we actually get into a position to challenge them for a seed, I'm rooting for Dayton in all games, and SLU in all games except vs Dayton - Dayton still has the possibility of earning an at large and SLU is best chance for them to get some quality wins. Then there would be a chance of two bids if Dayton loses in finals.
Based on standings as of 1/17/23, looks like 4 seed is by far most likely chance with SLU, Dayton and vcu separating themselves a little (and likely have tiebreakers over us). So, this post will be updated periodically with our realistic goal (get 4 seed) and where things currently stand.
At 3-3, we are a half game back of 4 teams tied for the 4 seed at 3-2: Richmond, Duquesne, SBU and GW
We also have a ton of teams nipping at our heals, so we will want for them to strategically lose as well (unless they are playing vcu).
Current Standings with tiers:
Top 3:
vcu 4-1
Dayton 4-1
SLU 4-1
Battle for 4th:
Duquesne 3-2
Richmond 3-2
GW 3-2
SBU 3-2
Doing our own thing:
MASON 3-3
(3 consecutive wins required to be on pace for record of 13-5 or 12-6 is typically needed to finish top 4 - thanks Patriotsince81)
Nipping at heels:
Fordham 2-3
UMass 2-3
La Salle 2-3
URI 2-3
PIG status (bottom 6 teams):
Davidson 2-4
Saint Joe's 2-4
Loyola 0-5
Link to A-10 tournament bracket
Upcoming games of importance with team to root for in bold:
1/17
URI at Richmond
Davidson at Dayton
UMASS at vcu (UMass would be knocked a full game behind us though with a loss)
1/18
Duquesne at SBU (we can still win @ Duquesne to get tiebreaker)
HUGE remaining games for us:
At Richmond - can clinch tiebreaker
At GWU - can eliminate their head to head tiebreaker
EVERY ROAD GAME
Remaining schedule for us (with Ken Pom opponent ranks and our chances of winning):
Sat Jan 21 212 Rhode Island W, 67-66 66 55% Away × Wed Jan 25 93 vcu L, 70-65 68 31% Away × Sun Jan 29 206 Saint Joseph's W, 74-66 69 77% Home × Wed Feb 1 149 Massachusetts W, 73-68 70 68% Home × Sat Feb 4 237 Loyola Chicago W, 69-66 65 61% Away × Wed Feb 8 104 Duquesne L, 73-69 66 34% Away × Sat Feb 11 212 Rhode Island W, 71-63 66 77% Home × Wed Feb 15 187 George Washington W, 74-73 68 51% Away × Sat Feb 18 265 La Salle W, 74-63 67 85% Home × Sat Feb 25 50 Dayton L, 67-58 63 20% Away × Wed Mar 1 196 Fordham W, 72-65 68 75% Home × Sat Mar 4 102 Richmond L, 67-62 64 34% Away ×
I think playing Saturday is a more reasonable goal. I don't expect us to get to Sunday unless things drastically improve in the consistency department, but I would be surprised if we landed in the top 4 at this point.
Easiest way to play Saturday is to make the top 4, but if we get to Saturday by winning a Friday game I would take that as we are on a good path program-wise. Obviously it's not the fastest path, but it would at least show that we're bringing in the kind of talent we need to compete.
Easiest way to play Saturday is to make the top 4, but if we get to Saturday by winning a Friday game I would take that as we are on a good path program-wise. Obviously it's not the fastest path, but it would at least show that we're bringing in the kind of talent we need to compete.
I personally see “making Saturday” as a bar that I wanted to be met this year. Considering the inconsistencies we’ve seen with the team, it’s going to be tough without getting the top 4 double bye. Even then it’ll be tough.
I always said “Friday” is when it gets serious with the top 4 playing, that’s Thursday this year. I hold out hope that mason can still make top 4 somehow.
I always said “Friday” is when it gets serious with the top 4 playing, that’s Thursday this year. I hold out hope that mason can still make top 4 somehow.
- Thread Starter
- #10
Take a look at the new format - PIG's on Tuesday, top 4 play 1st games Thursday, no games Friday. New format sucks from a fan perspective - but probably much better off for getting the top 4 seeds (majority of which are hopefully at large candidates in the future) to the final 4.
Yeah I did not realize they did away with the Friday games. Either way, playing Saturday still stands. Just replace when I said "Friday" with "Thursday."
If we're playing Wednesday then we're in trouble.
I admire the optimism here but there's just not much more room for error. 12-6 is probably the target for top 4, which would mean 9-3 down the stretch. Losing at home to GW just can't happen if you're going to seriously contend. We will probably expect to win only one of @ Dayton, vcu, Richmond, or Duquesne, and there's absolutely no reason to be confident we even win at Rhode Island or GW. And that's before we get to the inevitable dumb home loss that's gonna happen one or two more times.
What is everyone's problem with the scheme? I get the frustration with results but the scheme itself is fine.
What is everyone's problem with the scheme? I get the frustration with results but the scheme itself is fine.
We're not finishing top four this year, so I would suggest we start with that reality in mind when sizing up the tournament. Playing consistently from game to game has been an issue with this team all year, but it might not be the worst thing if we do have to play an extra game in Brooklyn. By then, there is a slim chance that Kim will have settled upon his rotation and worked out many of the issues with turnovers, missed FTs and defensive lapses.
If we can somehow manage to win Wednesday and Thursday — note the word "if" — it would give us a day off to recuperate before having to play again on Saturday. If hell freezes over and we win Saturday, we'd play the next day in the finals.
Just to be very clear, I don't see us winning four games in Brooklyn; however, with the way the schedule is laid out with an off day in the middle, it definitely makes it much less formidable to do so than it was in the past.
Note: This post was edited due to an error found by Verdad.
If we can somehow manage to win Wednesday and Thursday — note the word "if" — it would give us a day off to recuperate before having to play again on Saturday. If hell freezes over and we win Saturday, we'd play the next day in the finals.
Just to be very clear, I don't see us winning four games in Brooklyn; however, with the way the schedule is laid out with an off day in the middle, it definitely makes it much less formidable to do so than it was in the past.
Note: This post was edited due to an error found by Verdad.
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- Thread Starter
- #14
HAH - finally get a chance to correct Tom!!! Final is Sunday, so Friday is only day off. We aren't in CAA anymore
Damn you, Verdad! Ok, my bad, i should have looked more closely at the schedule; but, my overall point was that we can avoid three games in as many days if we avoid the PIG. It's still daunting to play back-to-back games twice with an off day in the middle but — despite all of our flaws — depth is not one of them.HAH - finally get a chance to correct Tom!!! Final is Sunday, so Friday is only day off. We aren't in CAA anymore
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I don’t have any issues with offensive scheme or defensive scheme for most part. When it’s executed it’s been good. Offensively I like the movement, cuts and actions called. But we don’t take care of the ball to get to that point or go fast enough when needed. Defensively I’ve seen good wrinkles but the execution is lacking or inconsistent. I like when we push guards out but then we don’t always have a fast enough recovery to the open man.
Problem is we are an average team because sometimes we look good and sometimes we suck
Look good+ looking suck= average
from Twitter
@3BidLeaguePod
·
Jan 16
Every team that was in the A-10 last year is still within 1 win of a double bye through 5-6 games
@3BidLeaguePod
·
Jan 16
Every team that was in the A-10 last year is still within 1 win of a double bye through 5-6 games
Fun but impossible to predict. I'll throw my .02 anyway though.Current Goal - pray for 4th seed. Lose to URI and this entire thread shifts to discussing how to avoid PIG's. If we beat URI and Richmond beats vcu on 20th, that sets up a huge opportunity to offset the loss at SLU by beating vcu on the road in our next game, jumping them in the standings, and earning the H2H tiebreaker with vcu.
Unfortunately, the path to the 4 seed is going to require multiple road wins - our achilles heel.
Italicized teams have tiebreaker over us / We have tiebreaker over bolded teams
Current Standings with tiers:
Top 3:
vcu 5-1
Dayton 5-1
SLU 5-1
Battle for 4th:
Richmond 4-2
SBU 4-2
GW 3-2
Duquesne 3-3
MASON 3-3
(3 consecutive wins required to be on pace for record of 13-5 or 12-6 is typically needed to finish top 4 - thanks Patriotsince81)
Nipping at heels:
Fordham 2-3
La Salle 2-3
PIG status (bottom 6 teams):
URI 2-4
UMass 2-4
Davidson 2-4
Saint Joe's 2-4
Loyola 0-5
Link to A-10 tournament bracket
Upcoming games of importance with team to root for in bold:
1/20
vcu at Richmond
1/21
Dayton at GW
Fordham at Duquesne
SBU at LoChi
Remaining games to impact H2H tiebreakers:
At vcu - sole game - will determine
At Duquesne - sole game - will determine
At GWU - can eliminate their H2H tiebreaker
At Dayton - sole game - will determine
At Richmond - can clinch H2H
Remaining schedule for us (with Ken Pom opponent ranks and our chances of winning):
Sat Jan 21 212 Rhode Island W, 67-66 66 55% Away × Wed Jan 25 93 vcu L, 70-65 68 31% Away × Sun Jan 29 206 Saint Joseph's W, 74-66 69 77% Home × Wed Feb 1 149 Massachusetts W, 73-68 70 68% Home × Sat Feb 4 237 Loyola Chicago W, 69-66 65 61% Away × Wed Feb 8 104 Duquesne L, 73-69 66 34% Away × Sat Feb 11 212 Rhode Island W, 71-63 66 77% Home × Wed Feb 15 187 George Washington W, 74-73 68 51% Away × Sat Feb 18 265 La Salle W, 74-63 67 85% Home × Sat Feb 25 50 Dayton L, 67-58 63 20% Away × Wed Mar 1 196 Fordham W, 72-65 68 75% Home × Sat Mar 4 102 Richmond L, 67-62 64 34% Away ×
Just assuming no sub 200 NET losses, that would give Mason
2 wins over URI
1 win over Joes
1 win over Lasalle
1 win over Loy chi
So thats 5 right there.
Then you throw in the "winnable home games" against Umass and Fordham, now we're up to 10 wins
Now the mystery will be whether or not Mason 1) loses one or more of the sub 200 NET games (quite possible) or 2) sneaks in an unexpected win (like a Dayton, UR or even GW).
To get to that elusive 12-6 is going to be hard, because they don't have room for any more "stinkers" at home or on the road. Of course the program hasn't won a road game all year. Does that change on Saturday? We'll see.
Going to be interesting how the program does down the stretch. I'd love for them to get to that 11-7, 12-6 level but with the inconsistencies its hard to imagine that at this juncture.
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- Thread Starter
- #19
Easier way to look at it is from the loss perspective. We have 3, historically can have no more than 6 and still earn top 4 - so no more than 3 more losses.
We have 4 games left we wont be favored in: @vcu, @Duquesne, @Dayton and @Richmond.
Have to steal one of those and win every other game. No margin for error and not at all likely to happen based on road record - but whats the point of all of this if we dont follow and root for it to happen? Crazier stuff definitely happens in sports.
This is why I’m so confused by the defeatist attitude around here — there is still a very clear path to top 4, the idea of us stealing one of those games isn’t out of the picture, and we’ve already had our bad home loss from GW out of our system. I’m here for it.