FOR SALE To foul or not to foul?

[Robot]

Posted on the MasonHoops.com Blog:

"To foul or not to foul?" by Alan Kelly

The final seconds of last week’s George Mason victory over St. Mary’s College provided a situation that has become all too familiar to Mason fans. With six seconds remaining and the Patriots clinging to a three-point lead, the Gaels inbounded the ball beneath the Mason basket, needing to push the ball the length of the […]

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[MASONscott]

Interesting....I thought the discrepancy would have been greater and fouling would be the smarter play. In short, it doesn't seem to matter all that much and maybe the OCM played it right against Penn State?

"Basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy looked at all situations between November 2009 and mid-February 2013 “where a team trailing by 3 took possession of the ball with between five and 12 seconds left.” He found that teams which chose to defend were 1.5% more likely to win in regulation than teams which chose to foul (93.5% versus 92.0%). Pomeroy goes on to list a number of reasons why fouling might not be as good an idea as it sounds. Another study by Harvard student John Ezekowitz likewise found only a slight (and statistically insignificant) difference between the two strategies."

 

[Pablo]

As I said on another thread, I believe that Bryon Allen's fouling with 3 seconds remaining before the Gaels could attempt the game-tying 3-pt. FG was the smart basketball call by Hewitt (irrespective of what those studies indicate). IMO, the keys in the decision were: (1) the amount of time remaining; and (2) selecting the player who could be trusted to foul before the shot was attempted.

 

[Walter]

I am against fouling. Aa a Fan of basketball, I love the last second shot.

 

[Harry]

I was screaming at my TV when OCM chose not to foul Battle in the NIT game. But it is situational. Battle was PSU's best player and had been nailing clutch shots all game long. Our only chance, in that situation, was to foul him before the shot.

 

[gmu2006]

Foul and win.
Don't foul and win.
I don't care... Just win!

 

[KAOriginal]

As I said on another thread, I believe that Bryon Allen's fouling with 3 seconds remaining before the Gaels could attempt the game-tying 3-pt. FG was the smart basketball call by Hewitt (irrespective of what those studies indicate). IMO, the keys in the decision were: (1) the amount of time remaining; and (2) selecting the player who could be trusted to foul before the shot was attempted.

And what may be missing from the research is....what OPPOSING player got fouled?

Personally I would not want a player with the hot hand, known 3 pt gunner, 95% FT shooter etc taking the shot.

Of course I would also hopefully have instructed my players to keep it out of that guys hands.....

 

[Harry]

And what may be missing from the research is....what OPPOSING player got fouled?

Personally I would not want a player with the hot hand, known 3 pt gunner, 95% FT shooter etc taking the shot.

Of course I would also hopefully have instructed my players to keep it out of that guys hands.....

You just described Talor Battle...and the players did not keep it out of that guy's hands!

 

[gmutom]

You just described Talor Battle...and the players did not keep it out of that guy's hands!

Exactly. He was the one guy we didn't want touching the ball. By the way, Harry, I'm not going to make it out tonight, so feel free to sit in my four seats if you want to spread out a little.

 

[Quentin Daniels]

at a 1.5% difference - there's not a huge difference between the two, so go with your team's strength/weakness on 3 point defense and pick accordingly

sometimes it just doesn't work out though, the other guys are on scholarship too - if we had fouled as Battle was pretending to shoot and then sank all 3 FT's, there'd be just as pi$$ing and whining in the other direction

 

[GSII]

When I read he let the player decide what defense to play in similar situation vs Rhode Island, I realized what a nice job Hewitt has.

 

[GMUgemini]

When I read he let the player decide what defense to play in similar situation vs Rhode Island, I realized what a nice job Hewitt has.

Sort of like when Coach L let Vaughn call the play to beat UNCW a few years ago? Or let the players ignore his play calls on their way to beating Villanova?

 

[gmutom]

When I read he let the player decide what defense to play in similar situation vs Rhode Island, I realized what a nice job Hewitt has.

Did you have a problem when Coach L let Jon Vaughn coach during his senior year?

Note: Gemini beat me to it.

 

[MasonFanatic]

We had the situation again tonight, but Penn had the ball in the hands of a shooter on the perimeter at the 3 second mark. You can't foul there, because you risk the 4 point play.

 

[Patriotfan49]

Sort of like when Coach L let Vaughn call the play to beat UNCW a few years ago? Or let the players ignore his play calls on their way to beating Villanova?

John Vaughn was a pretty good player for us and showed a good understanding of situations and feel for the game and had some good players around him that showed the same ability....

That was a nationally ranked team and was maybe one of the best that Mason had, including some very good players that played Villanova.....I think they earned the ability and trust to do that.

Comparing the two situations are not quite doable. Thats like saying, oh Tom Brady makes hot reads and calls plays while with Belicheck, so why do you have a problem when Brandon Weeden with Chudzinski do the same thing?