Game 14: GMU (8-5 / 0-0) vs Richmond (7-6 / 0-0) on Saturday, December 31, at 2:00 PM.

Patriotsince81

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Thank you for small favors! The Spiders have finally parted ways with the likes of their AARP line-up of Golden, Gilyard, Sherrod, and Cayo! Those guys were around for what seemed like decades.

GMU is 26-41 against Richmond all-time.
We are 9-7 against the Spiders while members of the A10.

Ken Pom: Gives Mason a 56% chance to win. GMU 65-63.
GMU - 118
Richmond - 98
Richmond is currently 7-6 on the season and 0-0 in A10 play. They are 6-1 at home, 0-3 on the road, and 1-2 at neutral sites.

Wins: VMI (69-48), Northern Iowa (68-55), Temple (61-49), Drake (82-52), Fairleigh Dickinson (77-48), Bucknell (81-71), Coppin St. (83-65)
Losses: Charleston (92-90 OT), Wichita St. (56-53), Syracuse (74-71 OT), Toledo (90-67), William & Mary (58-57), Clemson (85-57)

Schedule: https://richmondspiders.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule
Roster: https://richmondspiders.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
Stats: https://richmondspiders.com/documents/2022/11/22/Combined_Team_Stats.pdf

Richmond is led by 6’7” Tyler Burton (19.0 ppg & 7.9 reb) and 5’10” Jason Nelson (10.3 ppg). In all seven Spiders have started over the course of the OOC schedule. Other statistical leaders for the Spiders are 6’7” Isaiah Bigelow (8.9 ppg & 5.4 reb), 7’0” Neal Quinn (8.0 ppg & 4.5 reb) and 6’5” Jason Roche (8.2 ppg).

Richmond averages 70.5 points per game while giving up 64.8. The Spiders shoot 44.8% from the floor and 36.9% from 3. Opponents are shooting 40.6% from the field and 31.8% from 3. They shoot 70.9% from the free throw line. The Spiders are out rebounding by their opponents by .5 boards per game. They average 12.3 turnovers per game.

The game is on MASN2.

My prediction: I expect a low scoring affair. GMU 61 - Richmond 60.

Discuss.
 

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psyclone

All-American
Mason now up to #108 after tonight's win. Kenpom has us 5th in the A-10, 1 behind #107 vcu both of whom are projected to be 10-8 in the conference along with Duquesne and UMass and behind Dayton, St. Louis, and Richmond.
 

tblack33

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Mason now up to #108 after tonight's win. Kenpom has us 5th in the A-10, 1 behind #107 vcu both of whom are projected to be 10-8 in the conference along with Duquesne and UMass and behind Dayton, St. Louis, and Richmond.
Super telling that even after what a lot of us would consider to be a wildly disappointing noncon we are still right there on the cusp of Kenpom top 100. Our floor and ceiling have risen so high in such a short time it really is mind boggling compared to where we were a few years ago. In English I trust.

Excited to see what we can do in conference play.
 

mkaufman1

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Super telling that even after what a lot of us would consider to be a wildly disappointing noncon we are still right there on the cusp of Kenpom top 100. Our floor and ceiling have risen so high in such a short time it really is mind boggling compared to where we were a few years ago. In English I trust.

Excited to see what we can do in conference play.
Yeah for all the poopooing that we did on the nonconf and rightfully so, the team has improved DRASTICALLY, over the course of the schedule and finished strong. If you told me they’d finish 8-5 after the Virgin Islands I would have laughed. They finished 7-0 at home which is great.

It’s not at large worthy and it’s not where we want the program to be, but there’s still a chance for a very good year and the conference is wide open. I too am excited to see it unfold.
 

GMU79

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Super telling that even after what a lot of us would consider to be a wildly disappointing noncon we are still right there on the cusp of Kenpom top 100. Our floor and ceiling have risen so high in such a short time it really is mind boggling compared to where we were a few years ago. In English I trust.

Excited to see what we can do in conference play.
Okay, I admit ignorance. Can you guys explain how we are ranked so well with a Paulsenian record against what seems to me to be a Paulsenian OOC schedule?
I could use the education to make me feel better about this team and what Kim is doing, because on the surface, I don't get it.
 

Mason2005

All-Conference
Okay, I admit ignorance. Can you guys explain how we are ranked so well with a Paulsenian record against what seems to me to be a Paulsenian OOC schedule?
I could use the education to make me feel better about this team and what Kim is doing, because on the surface, I don't get it.
Easy answer, bc you are wrong about it being a Paulsenian OOC schedule.
 

GMU79

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Easy answer, bc you are wrong about it being a Paulsenian OOC schedule.
Maybe so, but that didn't explain anything. My question was sincere. I don't need your sarcastic flippant mess.
Explain to me HOW the schedule is different. Give me stats, and any other pertinent information.
Actually, dont. I'd rather get it from somebody else.
 
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TweederGMU

All-Conference
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UR lost everyone (about time) and Burton is their only good player, lock him down and keep him to 15 points or less and don't turn the ball over and we got this.

Goodguys 70
Country Clubbers 62
 

Mason2005

All-Conference
Maybe so, but that didn't explain anything. My question was sincere. I don't need your sarcastic flippant mess.
Explain to me HOW the schedule is different. Give me stats, and any other pertinent information.
Actually, dont. I'd rather get it from somebody else.
Nothing sarcastic about it, pretty straight forward answer. Paulsen opponents had kenpoms in the 200-300s, check out Fordham's schedule so far. They are 12-1 but kenpom 177. Our opponents so for the most part have been <200.
 

tblack33

All-American
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Maybe so, but that didn't explain anything. My question was sincere. I don't need your sarcastic flippant mess.
Explain to me HOW the schedule is different. Give me stats, and any other pertinent information.
Actually, dont. I'd rather get it from somebody else.
I’ll take a stab, and someone who understands NET and Kenpom more can correct me, but even though our scheduling did not improve and you are right that this was a Paulsen-esque schedule (I’ll argue anyone that disagrees with this, our average NET for opponents was trash this season), we’ve won most of the games we needed to very efficiently which the metrics-based rankings rewards, compared to Paulsen days where we’d grind these same teams to a 5-6 point win. Blowing out bad teams is better than barely beating them when it comes to NET/Kenpom which when you say it out loud isn’t all that surprising. It helped we had a higher starting Kenpom position that most years under Paulsen from our performance last season and our returning scoring.
 

sleeperpick

Hall of Famer
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I’ll take a stab, and someone who understands NET and Kenpom more can correct me, but even though our scheduling did not improve and you are right that this was a Paulsen-esque schedule (I’ll argue anyone that disagrees with this, our average NET for opponents was trash this season), we’ve won most of the games we needed to very efficiently which the metrics-based rankings rewards, compared to Paulsen days where we’d grind these same teams to a 5-6 point win. Blowing out bad teams is better than barely beating them when it comes to NET/Kenpom which when you say it out loud isn’t all that surprising. It helped we had a higher starting Kenpom position that most years under Paulsen from our performance last season and our returning scoring.
Correct IMO. This is exactly a DP schedule for the most part. Clearly not what CKE said he wanted but definitely what he got. We beat the bad teams at home which was something DP couldn’t do
 

GMU79

Starter
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
I’ll take a stab, and someone who understands NET and Kenpom more can correct me, but even though our scheduling did not improve and you are right that this was a Paulsen-esque schedule (I’ll argue anyone that disagrees with this, our average NET for opponents was trash this season), we’ve won most of the games we needed to very efficiently which the metrics-based rankings rewards, compared to Paulsen days where we’d grind these same teams to a 5-6 point win. Blowing out bad teams is better than barely beating them when it comes to NET/Kenpom which when you say it out loud isn’t all that surprising. It helped we had a higher starting Kenpom position that most years under Paulsen from our performance last season and our returning scoring.
Thanks! This is helpful.
 

GMU79

Starter
⭐️ Donor ⭐️
Correct IMO. This is exactly a DP schedule for the most part. Clearly not what CKE said he wanted but definitely what he got. We beat the bad teams at home which was something DP couldn’t do
Thank you tblack33 and sleeperpick for confirming what I thought about this being a Paulsenian OOC schedule. That was why I was having a hard time understanding our ratings. But I guess it is a more refined process than I will ever understand.
 

Mason2005

All-Conference
Typical DP schedule vs this season. I wouldn't call this season a DP schedule.

Screenshot_20221224-204501.png
 

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sleeperpick

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Typical DP schedule vs this season. I wouldn't call this season a DP schedule.

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I’m not sure this is showing what you think it is. DP scheduled 3 top 100 teams that year including 19 Baylor in a better tourney down in the panhandle of Florida which I attended. This is probably the worst example of a DP schedule to prove your point. End of the year kenpom for these low major teams that are way too high should make it more Paulsen esque as well.
 
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