25-26 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

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jessej

jessej

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NewPatriot said:
Its way too early.
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yes and no

there are probably at least 30 teams that will make the tourney - assuming no injuries - because they have dominant talent

i believe there is a lot of uncertainty in who wins the bottom 20 conferences and conference tournament as the talent spread is not that wide

For instance - when the Top 25 is released tomorrow i would bet that the Top 15 teams make the Tourney - assuming no season ending injuries to starters
 
MasonSAE4

MasonSAE4

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I hate to be that guy, but we aren’t an at-large team. Is it possible we’re one of the best 64 teams in the country? Yeah absolutely. But come the end of the year unless we go like 16-2 in conference and lose in the final, there’s just no way. We didn’t give the committee anything to point to in the OOC.
 
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jessej

jessej

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MasonSAE4 said:
I hate to be that guy, but we aren’t an at-large team. Is it possible we’re one of the best 64 teams in the country? Yeah absolutely. But come the end of the year unless we go like 16-2 in conference and lose in the final, there’s just no way. We didn’t give the committee anything to point to in the OOC.
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IMO

1) win the a-10 tournament and get the AQ
2) win a-10 regular season and make it to the conference tournament final - at large
3) anything else is NIT year 2
 
MasonSAE4

MasonSAE4

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jessej said:
IMO

1) win the a-10 tournament and get the AQ
2) win a-10 regular season and make it to the conference tournament final - at large
3) anything else is NIT year 2
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#2 has a lot of variables though. What’s your record? Is it 17-1 and you lose to a Dayton or vcu in both the regular season and the A-10 final? Then yeah, maybe. 13-5 and you lose to someone who got hot at the right time like GW or something? No chance
 
J

jruby

Starter
15–3 is still alive for an at-large. Very much possible.

The path hasn’t really changed: go undefeated at home and take a manageable hit on the road. That likely means losses at Bonnies, vcu, and one more road game that isn’t a disaster like GW, or maybe Richmond.

vcu and Saint Louis at home are absolute must-wins but they always were. Nothing about that has changed. This was always the roadmap, and until they actually start dropping games, the at-large conversation is still alive.

Not saying it will happen just that the plan hasn’t shifted from what it was at the start of the season. And going undefeated out of conference was never a requirement… it would’ve been great, but it was never “must-have.”

If they somehow steal one at vcu, then they can afford to drop one against a slightly worse road team and still land around 16–2… but that’s obviously a tough ask.
 
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J

jruby

Starter
NewPatriot said:
GW is considered a title contender and ahead of Mason in the NET right now...it's would be a Quad 1 opportunity
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Ok..... So are you just repeating what I said. Those are the 3 that would not be a disaster. Losing to Rhode Island, Fordham or Loyola on the road would be a disaster. Richmond may even be in the disaster level but that's why I said maybe.... I personally think GW has a horrible coach but either way it doesn't matter I already said they could spilt with them and the assumption is vcu and Bonnies are a loss. You can mix and match and pick 3 from those 4/5 games I don't really care but the point is the exact same.
 
N

NewPatriot

Starter
jruby said:
Ok..... So are you just repeating what I said. Those are the 3 that would not be a disaster. Losing to Rhode Island, Fordham or Loyola on the road would be a disaster. Richmond may even be in the disaster level but that's why I said maybe.... I personally think GW has a horrible coach but either way it doesn't matter I already said they could spilt with them and the assumption is vcu and Bonnies are a loss. You can mix and match and pick 3 from those 4/5 games I don't really care but the point is the exact same.
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Okay.
 
J

jruby

Starter
GMUgemini said:
Richmond would be a Q2 loss. Not a disaster.

The only disasters are Loyola, Fordham, St. Joes at all; and Duquesne at home.
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Can't lose any at home and have a chance. Have to win all of them at home. I agree Richmond right now is not a disaster but depends how far they fall. I messed up the Rankings on St Joes and Richmond, my fault. Either way it may end up being only 3 games then can lose are vcu bonnies and gw on the road it can't be more than 3 total though.
 
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GMUgemini

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You can also lose to vcu at home if we beat them on the road (which we have done before).

But I have a hard time believing we can climb into the top 50, which is what we would need to be to even be on the bubble. I’m not sure what vcu was in the NET on selection day but I’m pretty sure they were better than 45 and they would have been left out if we beat them.

I think it’s win the AQ or NIT for us again, I’m afraid.
 
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GMU79

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GMUgemini said:
You can also lose to vcu at home if we beat them on the road (which we have done before).

But I have a hard time believing we can climb into the top 50, which is what we would need to be to even be on the bubble. I’m not sure what vcu was in the NET on selection day but I’m pretty sure they were better than 45 and they would have been left out if we beat them.

I think it’s win the AQ or NIT for us again, I’m afraid.
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Of course I would hate to not make the NCAA, but with all the changes taking place, and considering where we have been since 2011, the NIT is not a bad consolation prize. I know it's not what it was, but still, a NIT Championship banner would be pretty cool.
 
J

jruby

Starter

Quick “final numbers” post​


If Mason goes 15–3 in A-10 with losses only @vcu, @St.Bonaventure, @GW (and wins at home vs SLU/vcu/Dayton):


Mason finishes around​


NET: ~42 (range 38–48)
KenPom: ~47 (range 40–55)

If Mason finishes NET ~42 and has something like:​


  • 2–4 Q1 wins
  • 5–8 Q2 wins
  • 0–1 Q3 losses
  • 0 Q4 losses
    …then they’re not just “in,” they’re comfortably in.

The only way NET ~42 misses:​


  • you somehow have almost no Q1/Q2 wins, or
  • you have multiple Q3/Q4 losses, or
  • your schedule is extremely weak and the committee doesn’t trust it.

That’s rare for a NET-42 team but it can happen.



In this scenario, Mason almost certainly has the wins​


If Mason goes 15–3 in A-10 with losses only @vcu, @Bonnies, @GW, and they beat vcu + Saint Louis + Dayton at home, that résumé almost certainly includes multiple Q1/Q2 wins (especially if SLU stays top-30 and vcu stays top-75). NET quadrants are location-based and tied to opponent NET. SI+1


So the résumé behind a NET ~42 would almost certainly be NCAA-worthy.



Final verdict​


NET: ~42 (38–48) + KenPom: ~47 (40–55) = Yes, Mason is very likely in.​


They’d probably be somewhere around an 8–11 seed.
 
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