I'm happy to go back to being optimistic after yesterday's return to form, in my hopes, not my expectations. So after being resigned to not being top 4, I took a peek at the standings we do have 1 path.
Dayton owns tiebreaker over us due to their H2H win, and given the way they are playing/remaining opponents, I don't see any likelihood that they lose both remaining games.
So it is all about us and SJU - whom we split with. If we win both remaining games (I know, but we are fans, so why not hypothesize?), and SJU loses @ Davidson or vs LaSalle - we get the 4 seed.
1. We win both, they lose 1, we get 4 seed.
2. We win vs SLU and lose @ vcu, and they lose both, we get 4 seed.
3. We win @ vcu and lose vs SLU, and they lose both - it will depend on whether is #2 seed or #3 seed. If Dayton climbs to #2 seed in this scenario, we LOSE the tiebreaker to SJU based on records vs Dayton (SJU beat Dayton).
Tiebreaker is winning percentage vs highest ranked common opponent. They are 0-1 against both SLU and vcu, but 1-0 vs Dayton, so we win the tiebreaker if we get even record wise, unless record vs Dayton is ultimately the tiebreaker (and Dayton owns tiebreaker vs vcu due to their common records vs SLU).
Ironically, if we beat vcu and lose to SLU, and SJU loses one game, we will need vcu to beat Dayton for us to get 4 seed. So let's just win both and hope SJU loses at least 1.
Dayton owns tiebreaker over us due to their H2H win, and given the way they are playing/remaining opponents, I don't see any likelihood that they lose both remaining games.
So it is all about us and SJU - whom we split with. If we win both remaining games (I know, but we are fans, so why not hypothesize?), and SJU loses @ Davidson or vs LaSalle - we get the 4 seed.
1. We win both, they lose 1, we get 4 seed.
2. We win vs SLU and lose @ vcu, and they lose both, we get 4 seed.
3. We win @ vcu and lose vs SLU, and they lose both - it will depend on whether is #2 seed or #3 seed. If Dayton climbs to #2 seed in this scenario, we LOSE the tiebreaker to SJU based on records vs Dayton (SJU beat Dayton).
Tiebreaker is winning percentage vs highest ranked common opponent. They are 0-1 against both SLU and vcu, but 1-0 vs Dayton, so we win the tiebreaker if we get even record wise, unless record vs Dayton is ultimately the tiebreaker (and Dayton owns tiebreaker vs vcu due to their common records vs SLU).
Ironically, if we beat vcu and lose to SLU, and SJU loses one game, we will need vcu to beat Dayton for us to get 4 seed. So let's just win both and hope SJU loses at least 1.
