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So... Too Early to Talk About Next Year?

Discussion in 'George Mason Basketball' started by Pikapppatri8, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Pikapppatri8

    Pikapppatri8 Hall of Famer

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    Ok it sucks the world over-reacted to a virus that everyone thinks is gonnorhea gone airborne but will be only slightly worse than the flu when all is said and done. Because of this we were robbed of March Madness right after Mason won its first A-10 tourney game.

    So... we are stuck thinking about next year.

    What say you? What will the starting roster look like?

    What do we need to fix?

    What will happen with recruiting?

    What say you Mason nation?
  2. sleeperpick

    sleeperpick Hall of Famer

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    probably difficult to predict until summer since I am not sure JDS will be the last transfer out of the program. Also extra tough this year to predict considering Boyd is probably gone but nobody including Kier has any idea on his playing future.

    Team with Kier and AJ back is still no better than 6th if everything goes as well as possible.
  3. TweederGMU

    TweederGMU Starter

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    Boyd and Kier will be gone.
  4. GMUgemini

    GMUgemini Hall of Famer

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    I don't think you can predict that considering you have no idea of the progression curve of the freshmen and sophomores, or how good (or bad) our incoming recruits are.

    Same thing happened to Jalen Jenkins, who was briefly rated a 4 star and then dropped to a 3 right after he committed to Mason (I'm pretty sure within 24-48 hours).
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
  5. sleeperpick

    sleeperpick Hall of Famer

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    we have seen enough in Paulsen's tenure how progression typically works. Definitely a feasible projection IMO. This team on paper could potentially be decent next year all the way to pretty damn terrible. That is MY prediction. A lot of the problems with this roster isn't at all skill related. Jamal isn't getting any taller, Greg isn't going to get any more athletic, Daddy won't miraculously learn organized basketball, Goanar isn't going to turn into freshman year Goanar, Jordan's personality is not going to suddenly turn him into an aggressive kid with a mean streak, XJ won't suddenly figure out how to shoot, and Oduro probably won't learn how to play A10 big man defense.

    Who knows how Javon feels after the end of the year and who knows if Aj or Kier come back? It is called a prediction. From the team I know for sure is coming back and barring Polite being a day one NBA worthy player we aren't doing too much IMO

    Hopefully Kolek shoots 35% from 3 next year but a lot is different in A10 basketball to NEPSAC B league and a mid tier AAU league. Just saying.

    Henry needs to gain 25 lbs and I am high on him but it isn't fair to expect a game changing freshman to come in here. For us to be elite IMO we need both Henry and Polite to come in and play A10 quality 20 mins a game.

    I would love to hear your prediction since I think from your last post you probably shouldn't have one because of progression and new freshman and that is all we have to base on currently.
    DJ3 likes this.
  6. mkaufman1

    mkaufman1 Moderator Staff Member

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    We have 8 months to debate all this but I'll play

    Most likely scenario is that Kier and Boyd are gone and AJ is around so roster wise (this is off the top of my head so I dont' think I missed anyone)

    AJ (RS SR)
    Calixte (SR), Mar (Sr) Greene (Sr)
    Hartwell (Jr), Miller (Jr)
    XJ (Soph), Oduro (Soph)
    Kolek, Henry, Polite, Daddy (RS Frosh)

    On paper, once again we have what we think is a deeper team. The biggest wild card to me is whether or not Daddy is something or nothing more than a practice player. I do think the sophomores will make a nice jump and make the team better all around. Another wild card is if Mar can be a contributor for a few points a game (maybe 5-6) and provide quality defense with his length. He showed glimpses late this year.

    I can't see next year being super special, but I expect better than 11th. I can see the team being around 6th or 7th again, but I do think all around the team performs better. Having 4 seniors should help with that and maybe they exceed my expectations because of the amount of seniors we have.

    Now as far as Paulsen's status, I think its really important he gets a lot out of this group. We don't know if Brad will be around much longer, a new President is around, and its year 6. People are restless. Does 6th or 7th in the league make me want to keep the guy? Not really , but I also see recruiting continue to improve, and if I see a lot of freshman and sophomore talent (I know, again, sigh), it doesnt exactly make me want to rebuild.

    We'll have to wait and see but I'm not seeing anything real special for next year.
  7. Pikapppatri8

    Pikapppatri8 Hall of Famer

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    Why does everyone think Kier and Boyd are gone?
  8. sleeperpick

    sleeperpick Hall of Famer

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    the brass have all but told everyone Boyd won't be in Mason uniform next year... and there is this tricky thing called scholarship limitations that you can't just fudge over. I am not sure Kier is gone but pretty sure Boyd is
  9. Patriot8

    Patriot8 Starter

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    This absolutely no knock on AJ. I think he’s a really good player. I think he’s our best player. I hope he has a long, successful, and lucrative pro career.

    All that being said, any team that AJ is the best player on, is not a team that has enough talent to compete for a championship, NCAA bid, etc.
    PoorManProfit, DJ3 and sleeperpick like this.
  10. sleeperpick

    sleeperpick Hall of Famer

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    Very fair point. And he’s by far our best player. So that will tell you a lot
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
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  11. gmujim92

    gmujim92 Hall of Famer

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    Respectfully disagree.
  12. Patriot8

    Patriot8 Starter

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    Barring a significant grad transfer, AJ will be the best player on the roster next season without any plausible debate. Are you predicting that this team will compete for a top 3 spot in the conference, and pick up enough quality wins in the non-conference to be in consideration for an at-large?
    sleeperpick likes this.
  13. FreeGunston12

    FreeGunston12 Starter

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    So if Kier and Boyd don't return, that means we have an open scholarship right? I'm assuming Jack isn't getting that scholarship again if we can find someone else to use it.

    Do we just hold that on the chance that Kier will be able to get a medical hardship waiver and wants to return? If not, what do we target?

    We may end up with more scholarships open anyways. Unfortunately, due to the virus, we likely won't hear much news unless we sign someone.
  14. tblack33

    tblack33 Starter

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    If we go into next season with an open scholarship can we all agree that roster management is an issue under Paulsen?
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  15. tblack33

    tblack33 Starter

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    For those who think we’ll be in the 6-8 range, keep in mind most years the difference between 10th and 6th in the 10 is two wins.

    We are going to get better and more experienced, unfortunately so is every other team in the conference. Not a lot of teams in the lower/middle half of the conference that are losing a ton.

    Unfortunately I think we’ll be in the pillow fight again next year, I don’t think we have seen all of our transfers yet either.

    A few things that have a decent chance of happening that I think will keep us out of the bottom four:

    We don’t have anymore transfers, Kier comes back healthy and takes the JDS open scholarship.

    We dint have anymore transfers and use JDS scholarship to bring in a grad transfer 2 or 5 who can average minimum 12 ppg.

    We completely overhaul our offensive scheme. No more high screen hand off BS that doesn’t work with the players we have. This is probably the least likely of the three scenarios.

    No matter what I can’t see us finishing better than 9th; maybe 8 with a tie breaker.

    Starting roster should look like XJ, Javon, Miller, AJ, Oduro. It’ll probably take us 20 games to see that starting lineup consistently though because Dave is a tinkerer.

    Recruiting is what it is at this point, a light isn’t just going to go off to make Dave a better recruiter. We will continue to occasionally beat out CAA teams for recruits. Some will say it’s improving, hopefully everyone will agree that it’s still not good enough to compete in the A10.

    I’m still firmly conducting the NCAA or fire Dave next March train. If we aren’t dancing then Paulsen needs to book his own flight home from Brooklyn to pack his office up.
    jessej, DJ3 and sleeperpick like this.
  16. mkaufman1

    mkaufman1 Moderator Staff Member

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    but the question is

    1) do you sign someone and hope kier doesn’t come back
    2) sign someone and if kier comes back cut someone
    3) sign someone and “find a way” (which I’ve been told is not a thing)

    At the very least you hope that they find out about kier with enough time to pivot if needed and get someone

    also with your recruiting point

    you can’t tell me that guys like miller, hartwell, XJ and even Oduro aren’t better than the first group of guys that were coming in, or the very least there’s more talent there to start with vs develop.
  17. tblack33

    tblack33 Starter

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    If I’m Dave, I go with a guarantee and sign a grad transfer now. He has to know his seat is getting warm, does he wanna stake his job on the NCAA giving Kier a wavier? I wouldn’t.
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  18. mkaufman1

    mkaufman1 Moderator Staff Member

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    I wouldn’t either, but I also don’t think he’s concerned with/knows how warm his seat is. Brad is going to be patient and probably more patient than we’d like.

    And hoping for Kier to come back is probably more likely than finding a grad transfer interested in Mason. I’d be happy with a transfer since I know those are plentiful.
  19. Mason32

    Mason32 Sixth Man

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    According to recent Paulsen quotes in the WaPo we are a sleeping Giant just waiting to explode and Polite will be an elite A-10 player. Also according to Alan on twitter we are going to be ahead of Dayton and VCU in the preseason polls somehow. I'm supersoaker cised!
    jessej and sleeperpick like this.
  20. PoorManProfit

    PoorManProfit All-Conference

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    spread the news!!!

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